I. the expectation of raising interest rates suppresses the market valuation, and the situation in Ukraine disturbs the semiconductor industry chain
Since the beginning of the year, the NASDAQ has fallen 13.9% and Philadelphia Semiconductor has fallen 14.4%. It is mainly caused by the rapid rise of US inflation, which leads the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of tightening and suppress index valuation.
Monetary policy: during the epidemic, the super loose policy led to a rapid excess of liquidity. The official position of the Federal Reserve is generally hawkish, and the window for raising interest rates is approaching; Inflation hit a new high in January, and interest rates may be raised in advance in the future.
The valuation showed a downward trend, and the investment space of the leading target gradually appeared. At present, the industry PE (TTM) is 26.25 times, which is at the median in recent five years, and the industry valuation level is relatively reasonable.
The situation in Russia and Ukraine has disturbed the semiconductor industry. The supply of rare gases is concentrated in Russia and Ukraine; The situation in Russia and Ukraine intensifies the uncertainty of "lack of core", neon gas prices rise significantly in the short term, and small and medium-sized manufacturers and advanced processes may be affected.
II. Main industry and company information
\u3000\u30001. Consumer electronics: the recovery of global mobile phone sales continued, the volume and price of Q4 Apple mobile phones rose simultaneously, and the ecology made a breakthrough
Gartner predicts that the sales of 5g mobile phones in China will account for 50% of the world in 2021, which is expected to continue to recover
Apple: the volume and price of mobile phone sales have risen simultaneously, and both mobile phone and automobile businesses have made new progress
Dynamic: Apple's 13 inch MacBook Pro is expected to be updated next month, equipped with M2 chip. New progress has been made in automobile research and development: the patent of automobile skylight system with adjustable transparency. IPhone launched the taptopay function, which helps bind business groups and establish a user portrait database.
\u3000\u30002. Semiconductor industry: it is expected that the production capacity will be tight in 22 years, and the overall performance of semiconductor leaders will be better
"Epidemic + technology crackdown" has led to the upward delivery cycle of chips, and the production capacity in 22 years is still tight
TSM. N: revenue and net profit will maintain high growth, and new production capacity will be released year by year
Dynamics: the CAGR of the industry is expected to be 10-15% in the next five years, and the production capacity will remain tight in 2022. From 2022 to 2024, the new capacity will be released gradually, and the new capacity in Japan will be planned. Guidance for 2022: focus on process technology and supply chain optimization, and the increase of gross profit margin is sustainable. Product production plan: improve performance, reduce power consumption, multi scenario application capability, and continuously enhance core competitiveness.
\u3000\u30003. Automobile and parts: the penetration of electric vehicles in the world is accelerated, and Tesla leads the forefront of the industry
The global electric vehicle sales volume is rapid, and the penetration rate continues to reach a new high
Tesla: cost reduction and efficiency increase significantly improve gross profit margin, FSD and humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) have huge imagination space.
Dynamic: large cylindrical battery accelerates mass production, greatly reduces battery cost and improves performance, and the gross profit is expected to be further improved. The number of FSD test vehicles has reached 60000, and the commercialization of automatic driving has a broad market space. Full depth AI, human shape Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) is full of imagination.
\u3000\u30004. Aviation: the tight supply and demand promotes the recovery of aviation, and the epidemic and quality problems still suppress the recovery of Boeing
The overall recovery of airlines is improving, with tight supply and demand and ticket price elasticity driving profit expectations.
Boeing (BA. N): the impact of epidemic and quality problems is not over, and aircraft orders are expected to increase in the post epidemic era. Western World Airlines ordered two Boeing 777 cargo planes. Boeing 737max aircraft has go around conditions in Macao.
\u3000\u30005. Investment advice: actively focus on apple, NVIDIA, Tesla and Qualcomm.
