\u3000\u3000 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (000596)
Events
The performance of mobile sales during the Spring Festival is relatively optimistic.
Around the Spring Festival, we started tracking the Baijiu stock and the dynamic sales situation in many cities in Hefei, Lu’an, Wuhu, Anqing and other places in Anhui province. From the pre stocking, the dynamic marketing and the post harvest inventory digestion, the Baijiu sales in Anhui Province during the 22 Spring Festival were better. Among them, the consumption upgrading and brand concentration of Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) beneficiary areas of real estate wine leaders are more prominent. We think that the company’s long-term growth is obvious, and it is one of the best investment targets in the Baijiu industry.
Brief comment
The epidemic situation in Anhui is generally well controlled, and the feedback of mobile sales during the Spring Festival is optimistic.
Before and after the Spring Festival, Anhui’s epidemic situation was generally better. The main Baijiu consumption scenes such as banquet, dinner and gift giving in the province were less affected by the epidemic. According to the feedback from the tracked cities, the dealers’ payment collection and terminal purchase before the Spring Festival are generally positive, and the payment collection rhythm of Gujing is expected to accelerate by about 5pct year-on-year. During the Spring Festival, the real estate wine in Anhui and the national high-end and high-end Baijiu brand were better than those in the same period in 2021. The real estate liquor benefited from the increase of consumer brand awareness and the upgrading of Baijiu consumption in the province. From the perspective of channel inventory level, thanks to the relatively good dynamic sales during the Spring Festival, the channel inventory after the festival is also at a low level compared with previous years, with less inventory pressure on dealers and healthy capital turnover.
The consumption upgrading trend in the province is obvious, and GU20 is expected to form a strong barrier of 600 yuan.
In recent years, with the continuous landing of the Yangtze River Delta integration development plan, Anhui’s economic development speed has been in the leading level nationwide, and the income and consumption level of the residents in the province has been increasing. Baijiu consumption upgrading trend is also increasingly obvious. According to channel feedback, during the Spring Festival, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) year, the secondary high-end price of raw pulp series represented by Gu 16 and Gu 20 generally increased significantly, and the wine used for banquets and business banquets gradually upgraded from Gu 5 / Gu 8 to Gu 16 and above, promoting the continuous optimization of Gujing’s income structure and driving the improvement of the company’s profitability. With the rapid development of GU20 Province, a strong barrier will be formed at the price of 600 yuan, and the sub high-end consumption in the province will be upgraded continuously.
The expansion outside the province is commendable, and some markets have entered a large-scale stage.
In recent years, with the continuous maturity of the market layout in the province, the company has restarted to strengthen the development of markets outside the province. With the continuous improvement of the channel network layout outside the province and the continuous investment in national brand marketing, the brand influence of the company in the market outside the province has been continuously improved, the product price system has been reasonably set, the positive cycle of brands and channels has been gradually opened, and some markets have gradually entered the stage of product volume. According to channel feedback, the raw pulp series in Jiangsu market in 21 years has been up, and Jiangxi and Hubei markets in 22 years are also expected to make new breakthroughs.
Gujing’s “three products and four fragrances” product matrix is formed, and there is a logic of nationalization in the future.
\u3000\u30001、 The product matrix of “three products and four fragrances” has taken shape, and Gujing has accelerated the layout of high-end products. At present, Gujing has formed a product matrix of Luzhou flavor, Qingxiang flavor, Guxiang flavor and minglv flavor under the three brands of Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) + Huanghelou + Mingguang liquor industry. In September, it acquired Maotai Town Collection liquor industry, distributed soy sauce flavor, and the product matrix is richer. 2, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) Have the ability of nationalization. The company is one of the old eight famous wines, with good brand gene and national foundation. In recent years, China central television publicity and broadcasting continued to improve brand awareness. GU20 focuses on group buying channels, strictly controls the price, and forms good potential energy. In terms of channels, supplement the layout of the market around Anhui through the acquisition of Yellow Crane Tower and gradually realize the expansion outside the province. 3. The reform of the company’s system and mechanism is expected to continue, reduce the sales expense rate, improve the enthusiasm of the team and create better shareholder returns. From the perspective of brand power, channel power and marketing power, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) has the opportunity and ability of nationalization and has the logic of long-term growth.
Profit forecast:
It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company will realize revenue of RMB 12.603 billion, 15.299 billion and 18.248 billion, net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 24.03, 31.97 and 41.13, corresponding EPS of RMB 4.55, 6.05 and 7.78 per share, corresponding PE (2022 / 2 / 14) of 52.1x, 39.2x and 30.4x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips:
Repeated epidemics, intensified market competition and other risks.
