\u3000\u3000 Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) (600219)
The layout of the whole industrial chain of aluminum processing and the continuous expansion of automobile sector production capacity
The company is mainly engaged in electrolytic aluminum production and deep processing. It is a leading enterprise in aluminum product processing. It has a complete integrated aluminum industry chain from energy, alumina and electrolytic aluminum to aluminum profile, high-precision aluminum sector, strip and foil. Focusing on high-end aluminum sector and strip products, the company is the first manufacturer of aluminum passenger car body panels in China. With the advancement of automobile lightweight process, the demand for aluminum car panels has increased significantly. The company has an existing aluminum car panel production capacity of 200000 tons and a production capacity under construction of 200000 tons. In the future, aluminum body panels are expected to be in short supply, and the company has broad prospects for aluminum processing high-end products.
Aluminum smelting business: alumina production capacity continues to expand, and electrolytic aluminum benefits from tight supply and demand
The company’s aluminum smelting business products are alumina and electrolytic aluminum. The front-end alumina link mainly provides raw materials for downstream electrolytic aluminum smelting. Electrolytic aluminum products provide guarantee for the processing of aluminum sector, strip and foil downstream of the company’s industrial chain. The company has an alumina production capacity of 2.4 million tons, and the second phase alumina project under construction in Indonesia has a production capacity of 1 million tons. It is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2022; The existing electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 816000 tons and the renewable aluminum production capacity under construction is 100000 tons. It is expected to be put into operation in 2023. The products are sold to the downstream processing links of the company in the form of direct supply of molten aluminum. Due to the limited expansion of China’s primary aluminum production capacity, the aluminum price continues to rise, and the profit of the company’s aluminum smelting business continues to improve.
Aluminum processing business: attach importance to the high-end transformation of aluminum processing and continuously improve the added value of products
The company’s aluminum processing products include profiles, cold and hot rolling, aluminum foil, forgings, etc. at present, there are 900000 tons of hot rolling, 800000 tons of cold rolling, 320000 tons of aluminum profile production capacity, 91000 tons of aluminum foil production capacity, 200000 tons of body sector production capacity, and 200000 tons of body sector production capacity under construction, which is expected to be put into operation in 2023; The gross profit margin of the company’s automobile board is about 40%, and the gross profit per ton is close to 10000 yuan / ton, which will become an important profit growth point in the future. Relying on the advantages of the mature whole industry chain, the company has laid out the high-end field of product application, and successfully entered the market of automobile sector, aviation sector and lithium battery aluminum foil. The optimization and upgrading of product structure has led to the continuous enhancement of profitability.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.43 billion yuan, 4.5 billion yuan and 5.56 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the current share price PE of 15.0, 11.4 and 9.2 times respectively. Considering the company’s position and growth in the aluminum processing industry, the company is given a “buy” rating.
