\u3000\u3000 Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) (002088)
Event: the company announced that in 2021, the company expected to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 3.164 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.04%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 535 million, a year-on-year increase of 44.41%, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was RMB 522 million, a year-on-year increase of 48.59%, which was in line with our expectations and slightly higher than the market expectations.
Comments: under the background of the implementation of double carbon, the clearing out of small enterprises has accelerated, the market share of the company has increased, and the performance has increased. In the past 21 years, with the promotion of national energy conservation and carbon reduction and the implementation of the dual control policy of energy consumption, the small production capacity has been further cleared, and 70 enterprises have been shut down in Shandong alone (the total number of industrial enterprises is about 220). The company actively optimized its production line and increased its production capacity, seizing this part of the blank market. By the end of the 21st lunar calendar, the company's production capacity reached 450000 tons, 90000 tons higher than that at the end of the 20th lunar calendar, and its market share was further improved.
Q4 performance is under pressure against the background of rising raw material and energy prices. Since the fourth quarter, the company's revenue has been under pressure and its performance has declined slightly due to factors such as power cut-off, rising raw material and energy prices. Specifically, the business of 21q4 company was 878 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.95% and a month on month increase of 4.86%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 130 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.93% and a month on month decrease of 10.8%. If the investment income is considered to be deducted, it will decline by 2.47% year-on-year.
In the capacity expansion cycle, we are optimistic about the application of products in new fields. Previously, the company planned 12 ceramic fiber production lines in Inner Mongolia with a total capacity of 120000 tons. It is optimistic that the company's capacity will reach 600000 tons by the end of 22, supporting the rapid growth of performance. In new scenarios, such as molten salt energy storage, ceramic fiber, as a kind of thermal insulation material, is an essential material in energy conversion equipment. From the tracking of the industrial chain, the orders of Hangzhou Boiler, the leader of industrial boiler, surged in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 85%. The release of this part of demand in the future is expected to drive the further expansion of ceramic fiber industry.
Investment suggestion: the company is a model of China's manufacturing industry. Under the background of increasing demand for double carbon energy conservation and carbon reduction, the company's capacity expansion is expected to achieve high performance growth. It is estimated that the company's purchase performance will be RMB 1.36-2.05 times, which corresponds to the "1.65-2.05-1.65-1.5-1.65-1.5-1.65-1.5-1.6-1.5-times of the" expected purchase performance ".
Risk warning: covid-19 epidemic risk, raw material price rise risk, downstream demand growth is less than expected
