\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812)
Events
On February 16, Yuxi Municipal government and the company, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Huayou holding and Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) signed the cooperation agreement for the whole industry chain project of new energy batteries. The main terms include:
(1) mineral resources cooperative development project
Two joint ventures were established, mainly engaged in mineral development and deep processing, Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) both holding 22% and being the second largest shareholder. It is also agreed that other partners will be allowed to participate in the joint venture in the future to maintain the relative holding position of the investment subject designated by Yuxi Municipal government.
(2) construction of battery, diaphragm, anode and cathode materials and other supporting projects
The joint venture company is directly established by Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Huayou holding and Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) to be responsible for the construction and operation of the project. The plan is divided into three phases: the first phase promises to invest about 18.05 billion yuan, which will be completed by the end of 2023. The promised investment in phase II of the project is about 33.65 billion yuan, which will be completed by the end of 2025. The third phase of the project is planned to be completed by 2030.
Brief comment
Build industrial clusters, participate in mineral development and build a new growth pole of performance.
Yuxi is rich in lithium, nickel, phosphorus and other mineral resources; Moreover, the electricity price is low (only 0.35 yuan / kWh for large industrial power consumption of 220 kV and above, and 0.6 yuan / kWh for Changzhou), which is suitable for the production of lithium battery materials with high power consumption such as diaphragm and negative electrode. Superior natural conditions are suitable for the development of lithium battery industry. On the one hand, Enjie can fully enjoy the cost and synergy advantages brought by industrial clusters, and can also participate in the development of local mineral resources through joint ventures to build a new growth pole of performance.
The expansion of production far exceeds that of the same industry and strengthens the global leading position.
Since 2021, the tension between supply and demand in the industry has intensified, and the price rise tide in China has continued to spread. We expect the price to remain high until 2024. Enjie responded to the equipment supply bottleneck by locking the capacity of the steel making Institute, importing other suppliers and building its own equipment platform. It is estimated that the new capacity from 2022 to 2023 will account for 38% and 42% of the whole industry. It is estimated that the shipment volume of Enjie wet diaphragm from 2022 to 2023 will be 5.5/7.8 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of + 79% / + 42%, and the corresponding global share is expected to increase to more than 40%. It is expected that the net profit of Enjie wet diaphragm from 2022 to 2023 will be 0.98/1.03 yuan.
Profit forecast
Assuming the smooth implementation of equity incentive and considering the cost of equity incentive, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 5.2 billion and 7.8 billion from 2022 to 2023, corresponding to 43 and 28 times of the PE of the share price on February 17.
Risk tips
The production expansion progress is less than expected; The price rise was less than expected.
