\u3000\u3000 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) (600702)
Events
The company issued the annual performance express of 2021.
In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 4.969 billion yuan (+ 83.80%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.246 billion yuan (+ 114.35%); The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.211 billion yuan (+ 120.89%).
Among them, 2021q4 company is expected to realize operating revenue of 1.362 billion yuan (+ 44.89%), net profit attributable to parent company of 276 million yuan (+ 2.12%), net profit not attributable to parent company of 251 million yuan (- 3.51%).
Brief comment
Shede + Tuopai two wheel drive, the company’s revenue increased sharply in 21 years.
The company’s total operating revenue in 2021 was 4.969 billion yuan, an increase of 83.8% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.211 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 120.89%, which was basically in line with expectations. Chengfeng sub high-end capacity expansion + old wine strategy, large single product taste is willing to continue in large quantities, and the collection series is growing rapidly. In terms of Tuopai, Tuopai’s customized liquor business was restarted and the “c2m strategy” was implemented. T68, liuliang, tuopaiqu liquor reprint and other products have prominent brand and quality advantages in the light bottle liquor track, and also achieved high growth in 2021. In addition, super high-end products such as tianzihu and tunzhihu have also achieved high growth under a low base, the brand influence has been continuously improved, and the revenue structure has been continuously optimized.
Increase marketing investment and improve brand potential.
From the performance of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company, the net profit margin of 21q4 in a single quarter was 20.26%, down 8.74pct year-on-year, mainly due to: ① Q4 increased the intensity of willing to control goods, while Tuopai’s low base and high growth affected the gross profit margin and net profit margin; ② In order to promote the national recognition of shede brand, 21q4 company has strengthened the nationwide offline advertising, including ladder media, transportation advertising, urban outdoor advertising, etc; ③ The year-end bonus accrual of sales personnel and the year-end bonus of employees have an impact on the quarterly expense rate.
During the peak season of the Spring Festival, mobile sales have landed smoothly, and the channel ecology has continued to improve.
The Spring Festival of the 22nd year started well and gave a good performance. Except for the impact of the epidemic in some areas, the overall dynamic sales situation is excellent, and the dealers have high enthusiasm for payment collection. It is expected that about 25% – 30% of the payment collection has been completed, and 40% of Q1 is expected to be completed. During the peak season of the Spring Festival, the amount of alcohol used for banquets has increased significantly, the product grade has been upgraded, the consumption atmosphere is good, the channel inventory digestion is good, and the channel inventory level has dropped to a healthy level within 2 months after the festival. In 2021q4, the company started to control goods and raise prices, thicken channel profits, optimize channel ecology, create a good market sales atmosphere, and lay a good foundation for a good start in 22 years. In the context of promoting consumption and steady growth in the past 22 years, it is expected that with the gradual recovery of the economy and the improvement of the control of the epidemic, the company’s annual high-quality growth is still expected.
The four strategic lines are clear, and Fosun takes the lead to help the old famous wine take off.
After Fosun became the owner, in 2021, the company carried out national channel expansion and deep cultivation of channels, promoted flat and refined operation of channels, optimized channel structure, separately attracted investment for large single products such as collection shede, wisdom shede and crystal shede, established Chengdu alliance, integrated customer resources, accurate investment and management expenses. Shede continues to integrate into Fosun ecology, highlight the brand positioning of shede old wine, give full play to the scale and quality advantages of 120000 ton jars of old wine, and lead the revival of old wine along the differentiated route.
According to the annual work conference of shede, the company will focus on “four strategies” in 2022, namely old wine strategy, double brand strategy, youth strategy and internationalization strategy. We should further clarify the direction and key points of development, continue to expand and strengthen the Baijiu business, and tailor the short-term, medium-term and long-term objectives to anchor future growth. Market development focuses on Sichuan, Hebei, Shandong and Henan, promotes northeast and northwest, and breaks through East and South China. In the future, we are optimistic that as a national sub high-end famous wine, willing to enjoy the double dividend of sub high-end capacity expansion and the rapid growth of the old wine market will continue to grow rapidly.
Profit forecast:
It is estimated that from 2022 to 2023, the company will realize revenue of 6.749 billion and 8.622 billion yuan, net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.824 billion and 2.446 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 5.43 and 7.27 yuan / share, and PE of 39.6x and 29.6x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips:
The market expansion is less than expected, the epidemic situation is repeated, food safety risks, etc.
