\u3000\u3000 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858)
Event: the company announced on February 18 that Zeng Congqin was the Secretary and chairman of the Party committee of the group and the joint stock company, Zou Tao was the deputy secretary and general manager of the group, and Jiang Wenge was the Deputy Secretary of the Party committee, vice chairman and general manager of the joint stock company.
For high-end brands, stability comes first, and boots will set sail after landing. After the personnel adjustment is implemented, the management team will tend to be stable. For the operation of high-end brands, there is no need for too many fancy means. The key is stable internal management, unified sales policies and strong execution. At the same time, the appointment and removal of any post are carefully selected by the government, so there is no need to worry too much about ability. We believe that for Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , the current stable and moderate adjustment is the best choice.
The market overemphasizes the channel thrust, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) brand advantage is the key. At present, Baijiu research focuses more on channel tracking, and emphasizes the influence of channel profit on sales. It considers that distributor's channel profit, channel thrust and willingness are the core competitiveness of the company. In fact, the core competitiveness of high-end Baijiu lies in its brand. Recently, the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) feedback has not been able to break through, and the channel profit is very thin. We believe that the flat price is more due to the company's delivery rhythm, so we should not worry too much.
The remaining problems of channel inventory have been basically solved, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) loaded light and the price transmission is smoother. According to the channel research information in some regions, the company's channel inventory problem has been greatly improved. At present, the dealer's channel inventory level remains low, light loading and moving sales are in good condition. Under the condition of smooth channel sales, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will be more comfortable in the delivery plan, and the autonomy of delivery rhythm control will be significantly improved. If the price adjustment policy is introduced, the acceptance of channel merchants and terminals will be higher, and the price transmission will be smoother.
Investment suggestion: in the long run, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) as the king of Luzhou flavor, has a strong consumption foundation and a thick brand accumulation. At present, the management is stable, with tacit understanding, the channel execution is strengthened again, and the old wine market helps the diversified development of product attributes. We are optimistic about the return of its brand value and expect it to have a better competition pattern in the 1000 yuan price band. We are optimistic about the comprehensive reform of the company in terms of products, brands and channel management, and the development of the company's secondary entrepreneurship. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 6.09 yuan, 7.13 yuan and 8.28 yuan respectively, maintain the Buy-A investment rating, and give a 12-month target price of 290 yuan, which is equivalent to the dynamic P / E ratio of 35x in 2023.
Risk tips: macroeconomic and policy risks, food safety issues, downside risks of competitive prices, and market systemic risks
