\u3000\u3000 Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) (603517)
Key points:
Founded in Changsha, Hunan Province in 2005, the company has experienced the initial development from 2005 to 2008, the rapid opening of stores in horse racing enclosure from 2008 to 2017, and the strategic layout of relevant food industries since 2017. It has become a leader in China's leisure halogen products industry.
Industry: scale growth, low concentration, differentiated tastes and consumption stickiness. From the supply side, the leisure halogen products industry has increased significantly from 23.2 billion yuan in 2010 to 129.9 billion yuan in 2020. The ten-year CAGR is as high as 18.8%, but Cr5 is only 20.2%. There is great room to improve the concentration. From the demand side, the differentiation of brine and production process leads to the unique taste of products, which is that consumers have unique memory. The whole leisure brine products are spicy and addictive, "capsaicin pleasure" improves consumers' repurchase rate.
Business model: the single store model of halogen products is excellent, and the high flat efficiency drives the high growth of the expansion store. Ping efficiency is the winning core of the franchise chain business competition. The Ping efficiency of a single store of halogen products is high. The Ping efficiency of a single store of Jue Wei he Jiangxi Huangshanghuang Group Food Co.Ltd(002695) is 40000-80000 yuan / m2, and that of Zhou Heiya is 70000-13000 yuan / m2. Compared with other chain businesses, Juewei franchise stores need the least initial investment, only 100000-200000 yuan, which can be repaid in 12-18 months. The excellent single store model makes franchisees have a strong willingness to show their stores.
There are no advantages or disadvantages of direct vs franchise, and the development stage determines the applicable model. The direct operation mode is difficult to adapt to the super scale threshold operation, and the management radius limits the upper limit of expansion. In contrast, the franchise model transfers a large part of the workload to franchisees, and the company's management ceiling is higher. Compared with well-known catering companies, the brand awareness of halogen products needs to be improved. Franchising is the best choice at this stage, which can make the best use of the franchisee's local information and network advantages.
Supply chain and Canadian committee build barriers. The company has established 21 production bases across the country. The production capacity layout radiates the national sales outlets, and the fresh goods are on sale to ensure the product quality. The Committee has built an exchange platform, strengthened the communication, assistance and shop inspection efficiency between the company and franchisees, and between franchisees, and improved the enthusiasm and cohesion of franchisees.
Endogenous store opening + extension layout food ecological driving company will become a leading company in halogen products industry in the future. (1) Store opening space: the transformation of old communities and urban expansion in the first and second tier cities, and the emerging complexes and communities bring new store demand. In the future, the company still has encrypted space in the first and second tier cities, and there are a large number of husband and wife stores in the third and fourth tier cities that can be replaced. The calculation results show that the upper limit of Juewei store is 21000-24000, which is still space from the current 14000 stores. (2) Food ecological layout: the company has invested in more than 70 companies, including supply chain, cold chain management, catering management and consulting, chain catering and condiment companies. Actively lay out the food ecosystem of "main business: marinated flavor - chain light catering - supply chain coordination - expand the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain", so that the company's catering can get "one-stop service" from supply chain, cold chain distribution, sales channels (ordering agents, etc.), catering equipment to brand incubation. At the same time, invest in the processing of condiments, edible oil and prefabricated dishes, and continuously develop the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, Reduce operating costs and improve the catering industry.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the company will realize revenue of RMB 6.609 billion, 8.029 billion and 9.656 billion from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 25%, 21% and 20%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.098 billion yuan, 1.233 billion yuan and 1.539 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 57%, 12% and 25%; The corresponding EPS is 1.80, 2.03 and 2.53 yuan / share, and the corresponding PE is 33x, 29x and 23x from 2021 to 2023, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: price fluctuation of raw materials, food quality control, deterioration of epidemic situation, intensification of competition and other risks.
