\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) (002949)
High quality architectural design private enterprises have strong strength, diversified customer structure and abundant orders. The company is one of the leading brands in the architectural design industry. Its predecessor was founded in 1993 and landed in the capital market in 2019. Based on architectural design consulting, the company has expanded to the whole industrial chain and arranged construction technology business. It has undertaken many design consulting and EPC projects and won many industry awards. Among them, the results of prefabricated architectural design and BIM R & D and application are fruitful, and the technical level ranks in the forefront of the industry, The position of the industry has been continuously improved. Based on the national layout in South China, the company has expanded its customer structure from real estate developers to government and industrial and commercial enterprise customers, with rapid growth in revenue and performance scale. In 2020, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.894 billion yuan and a revenue CAGR of 41.27% from 2016 to 2020; The net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 93 million yuan in 2016 to 173 million yuan (YoY + 27.24%) in 2020. In the first three quarters of 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 141 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.34%. In 2021, the company made bad debt provision for individual projects, and the performance fell to 90-110 million yuan year-on-year. It is expected to be light in the future. In recent years, the downstream real estate industry of real estate construction and design has been under pressure as a whole, but the downstream customer structure of the company is diverse, the comprehensive competitive strength is strong, and the newly signed orders continue to grow. The newly signed contracts of architectural design in 2020 and 2021h1 are 2.318 billion yuan (YoY + 61.15%) and 1.075 billion yuan (YoY + 18.87%) respectively. Sufficient orders will help the growth of the main business in the future.
The demand for affordable housing construction in the 14th five year plan is broad, and the leading order contracting advantage of prefabricated design is significant. The construction of affordable housing is one of the key construction contents during the 14th Five Year Plan period in China. Relevant promotion policies are intensively issued. The Ministry of housing and urban rural development proposes that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the proportion of new affordable rental housing in the total supply of new housing should strive to reach more than 30%. The 14th five year plan public service plan specifies that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, It is preliminarily planned to add 6.5 million sets (rooms) in 40 key cities. The application of prefabricated construction technology in affordable housing has favorable conditions in policy and technology. The rapid promotion of affordable housing construction will help the development of prefabricated construction industry. As a leader in the design and construction of affordable housing in Shenzhen, the company has participated in the formulation of design standards for affordable housing in Shenzhen for a long time, undertaken the design and EPC projects of several affordable housing projects in Shenzhen, established long-term close cooperative relations with government agencies, and developed affordable housing product system based on assembly technology and put it into use in the project. At the same time, the company is a leader in prefabricated architectural design. Its R & D achievements, technical level and representative project volume scale rank in the forefront of the industry. The business scale of the prefabricated sector is expanding rapidly and orders are increasing rapidly. In the future, the company has significant comprehensive advantages in order contracting of affordable housing projects.
In depth development of layout building technology, BIM R & D continues to increase, and the future can be expected. Digitization in the construction industry is a long-term development trend, in which BIM Technology is the core driving force. Since 2011, the R & D and application of BIM Technology in China has entered a rapid development stage, but at present, the application rate of BIM engineering in China is still at a low level. During the "14th five year plan", BIM promoted the intensive release of policies to help the digital development of the industry. The company is one of the design enterprises that started BIM special research earlier in China. It has been deeply engaged in BIM research and development for more than 10 years. It can provide full process and professional BIM forward design, and its popularity has increased rapidly in the company. At present, the total construction area of projects carried out with BIM forward design exceeds 8 million m2, and has developed a multi-end cross enterprise design platform capolibim. In the process of drawing review, the company developed a multi terminal cross enterprise collaborative review system and signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Wanyi Technology Co., Ltd. to combine AI capability with BIM model review and realize the intelligent transformation of BIM project services. In the field of BIM software R & D, it is proposed to establish a joint venture with China's leading industrial software Zwsoft Co.Ltd(Guangzhou)(688083) to jointly carry out the R & D and sales of domestic BIM software. Based on its main business, the company makes use of its own experience and achievements in the construction industry and the advantages of BIM application technology to actively carry out cooperation with foreign countries and continue to deeply layout the BIM business. The commercialization process of its BIM software is expected to accelerate and help the company create new business growth points. The future scientific and technological transformation and long-term development are worth looking forward to.
Investment suggestion: the company has excellent qualification and strong technical strength. It is a high-quality private leader in the field of architectural design. Its industry status is continuously improved and its high-quality customer resources are abundant. Based on architectural design, the company expands the length of business chain to the whole process consulting and EPC. At the same time, the level of assembly design and BIM application is leading in the industry, with significant advantages in customer resources and technical experience in the field of affordable housing. At present, the company has abundant cash flow and sufficient orders on hand, which supports the release of future performance. It is expected to fully benefit from the promotion of new urbanization, construction industrialization and affordable housing construction, and the market share can be further improved. In addition, the company's long-term layout in the field of construction technology has achieved fruitful results in BIM Technology, and the positive design application is becoming more and more popular. At the same time, the company has carried out foreign cooperation and continued to code BIM software research and development, fully benefiting from the development trend of building digitization, and the transformation of construction technology can be expected in the future. We are optimistic about the company's future growth space. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.679 billion yuan, 3.249 billion yuan and 3.920 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 41.4%, 21.3% and 20.6% respectively. The net profit will be 102 million yuan, 250 million yuan and 314 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 40.9%, 143.9% and 26.0% respectively. The EPS will be 0.52 yuan, 1.27 yuan and 1.60 yuan respectively, and the dynamic PE will be 38.5 times 15.8 times and 12.5 times, Pb is 2.8 times, 2.4 times and 2.1 times respectively, maintaining the "Buy-A" rating, and the target price is 28 yuan.
Risk warning: macro economy fluctuates greatly; The epidemic control was not as expected; Policy promotion is less than expected; Decline in fixed investment; The revenue growth of the survey and design industry in the province was lower than expected; The proportion of revenue in Guangdong Province is lower than expected; The expansion outside the province is less than expected; The progress of construction technology business is less than expected; Loss of personnel; Decline in customers' business conditions; Industry competition intensifies risks, etc
