\u3000\u3000 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858)
The management adjusted the boot landing and created brilliance with one heart. Since November 2021, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) management has changed one after another, causing dealers to worry about the sustainability of market policies, resulting in the rapid decline of wholesale prices under the irrational rejection of goods by channels. After the adjustment of the company's management, Secretary Li Shuguang retired on time and was promoted to deputy director of the Economic Committee of Sichuan Provincial People's Congress, Zou Tao was promoted to general manager of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) group, former chairman Congqin concurrently served as chairman and party secretary of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) group, and newly elected Jiang Wenge as vice chairman and general manager of the joint stock company. From the perspective of the background of the new management, Zeng Congqin and Jiang Wenge have worked in the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) system for a long time, which helps to realize the seamless connection of the management. It is expected that after this round of management adjustment, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will be more creative in continuing the "Second Entrepreneurship", more coherent in the formulation and implementation of market policies, and actively optimistic about the two wheel drive of puwu and classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) under the stability of the management.
It is expected that the volume and price of puwu will rise at a low level, and the certainty of performance growth in 22 years is high. It is estimated that the main task of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in the next 22 years is to sort out the volume price relationship between puwu and classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . At present, the company has made a good start and made good progress, and the annual performance is expected to be completed. In terms of volume, 21h2 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will deal with the burden left by history by reissuing historical arrears, and realize light loading in 2022. In terms of price, during the peak season of the Spring Festival, the wholesale price of puwu rose to about 960-970. 2021q4 company raised the comprehensive cost of puwu to 969 yuan through unplanned price increase. At present, the feedback from major merchants in various regions is good. It is expected that the price is expected to rise steadily with the digestion of low-cost inventory in the previous year, the subsequent elimination of low-cost inventory and the promotion of the company's price support policy. On the whole, at the current time point, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) although there are slight fluctuations in the early channels, the growth task of the whole year of 22 years is unlikely to be completed.
Puwu is still the king of the 1000 yuan price segment, and the development of the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) 22 years is more solid. As the first brand of Luzhou Baijiu liquor, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will benefit from the price expansion bonus of thousand yuan in the medium and long term. The market may think that the launch of Maotai 1935 will intensify the competition of 1000 yuan price belt. We believe that: 1) in the short term, Maotai 1935 has certain speculation mood, and the price has dropped recently; 2) In the medium and long term, Maotai 1935 is more a strategic product of the company to improve the value chain of series of liquor. It can enjoy the expansion bonus of 1000 yuan price segment, but the long-term market launch is limited. In the long run, the company will guide and upgrade to the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in an orderly manner on the basis of puwu, creating the second growth pole.
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) personnel boots landed, and the expected bottom and valuation bottom are expected to rise again, maintaining the "buy" rating. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company will achieve revenue of 67.815/77.125/87.507 billion yuan and net profit attributable to parent company of 23.756/27.798/32.277 billion yuan, corresponding to PE of 27.8/24.0x in 22-23 years. At the current time point Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) 22, the valuation level is less than 28x, and there is room for further repair in the future to maintain the "buy" rating
Risk tip: the competition of 1000 yuan price band intensifies; The dynamic sales in the market are less than expected; Recurrent epidemic
