\u3000\u3000 Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) (603986)
Gd5f full range of domestic SPI NAND has passed the vehicle regulation level certification and fully entered the vehicle regulation market. Gd5f series includes three products, covering 1gb-4gb capacity, all of which have passed aec-q100 certification. Based on the 38nm process, the product adopts wson88mmx6mm small pin, miniaturized package and built-in ECC error correction module, which greatly improves the reliability of the product on the premise of ensuring the cost advantage, and realizes 100000 erasure performance in the range of - 40 ℃ ~ 105 ℃. The products have been produced nationwide from design, manufacturing to sealing and testing, which has filled the gap of domestic high-capacity vehicle memory to a great extent. According to IHS data, NAND accounts for more than 25% of automotive memory chips, with a market size of nearly US $1 billion.
Store vehicle specification products to add another army, and nor + NAND conspire with the vehicle market. The validated NAND products can provide high-capacity and cost-effective solutions for on-board gateway, DVR, intelligent cockpit, Tbox and other applications, which is an effective expansion of the company's vehicle regulation level nor. In March 2019, the whole series of gd25 spinor passed the vehicle regulation certification, which is the only vehicle regulation level flash memory product produced in China at present. By 2021q3, gd552gb high-capacity products have passed the vehicle regulation level certification. So far, the company's nor vehicle regulation level products cover 2mb-2gb capacity and realize the whole line. At present, the company's nor products are mainly used in ADAS, communication system, on-board information and entertainment system, battery management system, etc., and have been adopted in batches in many automobile enterprises. Automobile is the third largest downstream application in the nor industry, accounting for more than 18% of the market share, second only to communications and consumer electronics. The car regulatory nor will continue to promote the growth of the company's nor business.
The vehicle specification level MCU products are progressing smoothly and are expected to be mass produced in the middle of the year. In 2021q3, gd32a series of train gauge MCU products have passed the certification and are mainly oriented to the general body market, such as cockpit, etc. The product was successfully released at the end of last year and is now in the customer testing stage. It is expected to be mass produced in the middle of the year and generate revenue in the second half of the year. Automobile is the largest downstream application of MCU, accounting for 35% of the MCU market share. Seven leading companies such as Renesas, NXP, Infineon and microchip account for 95% of the global market share. The self-sufficiency rate of the mainland is very low. The company's products will effectively support some mainland demand and continue to contribute to the company's growth momentum.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 2.31 billion yuan, 3.22 billion yuan and 4.03 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 42 / 30 / 24 times of PE. Considering that the company is the double leader of mainland storage + MCU industry, under the background of localization, there is strong downstream demand, continuous optimization of product structure, both scarcity and growth, and maintains the "buy" rating.
Risk warning event: the prosperity of MCU and nor may be lower than expected, and the OEM cost increases. The company cannot bring the risk of pressure on gross profit margin through product structure adjustment or price increase.
