\u3000\u3000 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (000568)
Matters:
Recently, the company announced that it had completed the grant registration of the restricted stock incentive plan in 2021, and granted 6.9286 million shares of restricted stock to 437 incentive objects who met the grant conditions for the first time at the grant price of 92.71 yuan per share (originally 441, of which 4 core backbone personnel voluntarily gave up 66000 shares). The grant price was consistent with that of senior executives The number of shares allocated by the directors is consistent with the content of the plan disclosed at the end of last year, and the listing date of the granted shares is February 22, 2022.
Guoxin Food & Beverage view: 1) equity incentive is granted for the first time, and the incentive is strengthened to stimulate business vitality; 2) The Spring Festival payment collection and dynamic sales are stable, the national cellar is expected to continue to rise, and the annual performance can grow steadily; 3) Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the continuous upward and in-depth development of Guojiao. At present, Guojiao continues to march towards the 1000 yuan price belt, the revival of Tequ brand is advancing steadily, and the company’s volume and price growth space can still be expected in the future. We estimate that the operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 20.29/247.0/29.66 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 7.74/97.9/12.2 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 5.28/6.68/8.33 yuan, and the current share price will be 43 / 34 / 27x corresponding to PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Comments:
The equity incentive was granted for the first time, and the incentive was strengthened to stimulate business vitality
At the end of December last year, the company disclosed that the grant date of the first incentive plan was December 29, 2021, and determined to grant 6.9286 million restricted shares to 441 incentive objects for the first time at the grant price of 92.71 yuan per share, accounting for about 0.473% of the current total share capital of the company, of which 432 core backbone people were granted 6.2277 million shares, accounting for 79.75% of the total grant. In the process of determining the capital payment after the grant date, four core backbone personnel voluntarily gave up subscribing for all the restricted shares to be granted by the company for personal reasons, totaling 66000 shares. 437 incentive objects actually participated in the subscription, and the number of restricted shares registered after the grant was 6862600 shares, of which 428 core backbone personnel were granted 6161700 shares, Accounting for 79.58% of the total granted. It is estimated that the total incentive cost of the restricted stock is 1.031 billion yuan, which will be disbursed in the management expenses and amortized by 33 / 3.86/3.70/1.72/071 million yuan from 2021 to 2025 respectively (the impact of this data on the company’s financial situation and operating results is calculated data and does not represent the final accounting cost). The restricted shares granted by the incentive plan are restricted for 24 months. If the restricted shares meet the conditions for lifting the restrictions, the restricted shares will be lifted in three batches (40%, 30% and 30%) in the next 48 months. The performance evaluation conditions of equity incentive include three aspects: 1) roe: no less than 22% per year from 2021 to 2023, and no less than the 75th percentile of the benchmarking enterprise; 2) Growth rate of net profit: the growth rate of net profit from 2021 to 2023 compared with 2019 shall not be lower than the 75th percentile of the benchmarking enterprise; 3) From 2021 to 2023, the proportion of costs and expenses in operating revenue shall not be higher than 65%. According to the grant price of 92.71 yuan / share and the closing price of 227.69 yuan / share of the previous day, the average income of each incentive object is 2.12 million yuan, and the implementation of incentive is expected to further stimulate the endogenous business vitality of the company.
The Spring Festival payment collection and dynamic sales are stable, the national cellar is likely to continue to rise, and the annual performance can grow steadily
Combined with the recent channel feedback, before the Spring Festival, the dealer’s payment collection proportion is about 40%, and the delivery proportion is about 30%. During the Spring Festival, the price is stable, the rated price of Guojiao is about 910-920 yuan, and the terminal dynamic sales are relatively benign. The Spring Festival payment collection and dynamic sales performance in 2022 are stable. In addition, the company also raised the price of main products such as Guojiao and Tequ following Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) at the end of last year, which is expected to make a certain contribution to the company’s performance in the first quarter. It is expected that the company’s revenue and profit will continue to maintain steady and rapid growth in 2022q1. According to our previous calculation, in order to achieve the performance unlocking conditions of this equity incentive plan, we judge that the compound growth rate of the company’s performance may need to reach more than 30% from 2021 to 2023. Combined with our profit forecast of the company, we believe that the goal of the company’s incentive plan in 2021 is relatively easy to achieve, and the incentive plan in 2023 has high growth, Demonstrate the company’s confidence in steady growth in the future.
Investment suggestion: be optimistic about the potential energy of Guojiao, continue to develop upward and nationalization, and maintain the “buy” rating
At present, Guojiao brand is likely to continue to rise and march towards the 1000 yuan price belt. The revival of Tequ brand is advancing steadily, and the company’s volume and price growth space can still be expected in the future. We estimate that the operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 20.29/247.0/29.66 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 7.74/97.9/12.2 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 5.28/6.68/8.33 yuan, and the current share price will be 43 / 34 / 27x corresponding to PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic risks; Demand for high-end wine was lower than expected.
