\u3000\u3000 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (002557)
Event: the company released the 2021 annual performance express, and the performance reached the market expectation. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 5.985 billion yuan, yoy + 13.15%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 930 million yuan, yoy + 15.52%; Deduct 800 million yuan of net profit not attributable to parent company, yoy + 16.15%. In Q4 alone, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 2.103 billion yuan, yoy + 28.39%; Net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 336 million, yoy + 22.18%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 310 million yuan, yoy + 32.59%.
The price increase logic was fulfilled and the performance was brilliant. On October 22, 2021, the company issued a price increase announcement to adjust the ex factory price of sunflower seed series products, pumpkin seeds and small and fragrant watermelon seeds. The price increase range of each category is 8% - 18%. Price increase can not only promote the simultaneous rise of revenue volume and price through price dividend and channel dividend, but also enhance the scale effect and profitability by transferring cost pressure. Considering the leading position of the company's leisure snacks and the channel characteristics of 2C, we expect the downstream to have a high degree of acceptance of the price increase and the transmission of the price increase is relatively smooth. In the case of rising costs of upstream raw materials, packaging and auxiliary materials and energy, the company's net profit margin attributable to the parent company for the whole year of 21 was 15.54%, which was still slightly higher than that in 20 years, and the price increase logic has been realized.
The income of 21q4 is increased in advance of the Spring Festival, and the dynamic sales of 22q1 nuts are expected to be good. Considering: 1) as the Spring Festival moves forward in the 21st year, the preparation cycle will be advanced accordingly; 2) Increase prices and thicken channel profits to further stimulate the enthusiasm of dealers; 3) The dislocation of the Spring Festival in the past 20 years resulted in a low base in the same period. The revenue of 21q4 increased rapidly, and the total operating revenue increased by 28.39% compared with the same period last year. Considering that more nuts are shipped in gift boxes during the Spring Festival, group purchase channels are expected to account for a large proportion. In this case, the channel inventory and terminal inventory of nut products are expected to remain benign. At the same time, due to the relatively stable demand of national sunflower, we expect the overall dynamic sales to remain at a good level in the first quarter of 22 years.
Products and channels continue to fission and have support for long-term development. Products: the company strengthens the advantages of the two core categories of "melon seeds + nuts" through continuous product innovation. Guokui basic sector: the classic series continues to penetrate, and the flavor series have successively launched hickory, rattan pepper, caramel and other flavors, bringing new growth points. Kukui Zhen high-end series improves the price band and product structure. The second growth curve of nuts: the daily nuts in small yellow bags cater to the scene, the main function of probiotics in small blue bags, and the daily nut oatmeal is in line with the meal substitution, so as to actively develop the nut gift box market. Channel: the company continues to promote the million terminal plan. The company actively explores the channel intensive cultivation mode, builds the channel intensive cultivation information platform, defines the positioning of e-commerce channels, and constantly expands new channels and new scenes.
Investment advice: maintain the "buy" rating. Taking into account the company's price increase, thickening short-term performance and supporting long-term growth, we raised our profit forecast. It is expected that the company's revenue in 21-23 years will be 5.985/7.064/8.147 billion yuan, net profit will be 9.30/11.22/1.341 billion yuan and EPS will be 1.83/2.21/2.64 yuan respectively (the previous value is 1.78/2.12/2.43 yuan), maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: new product sales are less than expected, channel expansion is less than expected, raw material price fluctuations, food safety events.
