\u3000\u3000 Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) (601225)
Key investment points
The company disclosed the performance express of the annual report of 2021, and the main financial data are as follows:
In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 152.4 billion yuan, an increase of 60.32% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 20.94 billion yuan, an increase of 40.83% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share was 2.16 yuan, an increase of 40.83% year-on-year. The weighted average roe was 27.68% (a year-on-year increase of 4.52 PCT).
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 31.09 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 36.1% and a year-on-year increase of 1.07%; The net profit attributable to listed shareholders was RMB 1.19 billion, an increase of 1.19% over the same period last year.
The quarter on quarter growth of Q4 performance in 2021 is mainly due to the significant increase of coal price and relatively stable output. In 2021, the total coal output of the company was 136 million tons (+ 8.39%), and the total sales volume was 232 million tons (- 3.88%), including 134 million tons (+ 8.41%) of self-produced coal and 98 million tons (- 17%) of trade coal. In the fourth quarter, the company’s raw coal output was 33.22 million tons, with a quarter on quarter increase of 760000 tons, and the output was relatively stable. Meanwhile, the market price of coal rose sharply in the fourth quarter. Referring to the market price of Shaanxi Yulin power coal (q5800), the average price in the fourth quarter was 1181 yuan / ton, an increase of 33% compared with the average price in the third quarter (886 yuan / ton); Shenhua’s annual long-term association price from October to December is 754 / 754 / 725 yuan / ton respectively, with an average price of 744 yuan / ton, an increase of about 80 yuan / ton compared with the third quarter. It is expected that the selling prices in all production areas of the company will rise.
The current coal price is still high, and the company’s high performance is expected to continue. According to the announcement of the company’s main operation data in January 2022, the coal output in January was 10.32 million tons (- 14.59%), and the sales volume was 18.83 million tons (- 32.12%), of which the sales volume of self-produced coal was 9.41 million tons (- 21%), which is expected to have little impact on the annual output plan mainly due to the Spring Festival, shutdown and maintenance. In terms of price, the market price of Shaanxi Yulin thermal coal (q5800) has averaged 880 yuan / ton since the first quarter, basically the same as that in the third quarter of last year; The price of the long-term agreement implemented in January remained unchanged at 725 yuan / ton; The price of thermal coal is relatively strong in the near future, and the company is expected to maintain stable and high profits in 2022.
High dividend value blue chips. Due to less capital expenditure and abundant superimposed cash flow, the company has increased dividends in recent years. According to the company’s shareholder return plan for 2020-2022, the annual profit distributed by the company in cash shall not be less than 40% of the distributable profit realized in that year and the amount shall not be less than 4 billion yuan. The dividend proportion in 2020 is 52%. Assuming that the dividend of 40% / 52% in 2021, the dividend will be 8.4 billion yuan / 10.9 billion yuan respectively, The dividend yield corresponding to the current market value of 143.1 billion yuan (closing price on February 23) was 5.9% and 7.6% respectively. The company’s performance is stable and high dividends, which can be called a value model.
Profit forecast and Valuation: Based on the high coal price, the company’s selling price will increase significantly, and the volume and price of self-produced coal will rise simultaneously. We expect the company’s net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be 20.94/244.7/25.35 billion yuan respectively (186.1/204.0/21.12 billion yuan in the previous time), with a year-on-year increase of + 41%, + 17% and + 4%, The equivalent EPS is 2.16/2.52/2.61 yuan respectively (based on the share capital of 9.695 billion shares after the cancellation of repurchased shares). The current share price is 14.76 yuan, corresponding to the PE of 2021 / 22 / 23, which is 6.8x, 5.9x and 5.7x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk warning: coal price fluctuation risk; Safety production risk, etc
