\u3000\u3000 Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) (688800)
The proportion of national specialized special new small giants and automobile connectors continued to increase. Founded in 2006, after more than ten years of development, the company has become one of the enterprises with the R & D and production capacity of optical, electrical and microwave connectors at the same time. The two major fields of communication and automobile contribute to the main revenue. The company's new energy vehicle connector products are mainly high-voltage connectors, power exchange connector components, manual maintenance switches and other products; The communication connector is mainly the communication base station connector. In 2020, the revenue of new energy vehicles and communication connector products accounted for 49.1% and 43.8%, and the revenue of new energy vehicle connectors reached the highest level in history.
High voltage connectors benefit from the increased penetration of new energy vehicles, and the value of high-voltage distribution box and motor related connectors accounts for a relatively high proportion. The electrical connection system is like a nerve connecting the three electrical systems of new energy vehicles. Among them, the value of high-voltage connector exceeds that of high-voltage harness, accounting for the highest proportion, up to 55%. Based on general assumptions, we estimate that the single vehicle value of high-voltage connector is about 2145-4065 yuan, while the single vehicle value of traditional fuel vehicle connector is about 1000 yuan. With the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the market space of high-voltage connector is expected to expand significantly. According to our calculation results, the value of connectors related to motors accounts for about 41%, and the value of connectors related to high-voltage distribution boxes accounts for about 26%, which is the field with the highest value content of connectors. Whether we can obtain orders for high-voltage distribution box connectors or motor connectors has become the key to judge the competitiveness of connector enterprises.
The localization characteristics of the connector industry are obvious, the rise of independent brands and the opening of the window of domestic substitution. According to bishop & associate data, among the top ten enterprises in the global automotive connector industry in 2020, European enterprises accounted for 49%, Japanese enterprises accounted for 34% and American enterprises accounted for 17%. According to the data of the Federation of passengers, in 2021, among the top ten enterprises in the global automotive industry, European enterprises accounted for 45%, Japanese enterprises accounted for 34% and American enterprises accounted for 21%. The competition pattern of the global automotive connector industry is highly similar to that of its downstream automotive industry. We believe that the connector industry has strong localization characteristics. The important reason for the low market share of domestic connectors at present is the weak competitiveness of domestic vehicles. The competitiveness of independent brands in the field of new energy is stronger than that in the field of traditional energy vehicles. According to the data of the passenger Federation, independent brands accounted for about 39% of the market in traditional energy vehicles and 76% of the market in new energy vehicles in 2021. With the rapid increase of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the market share of independent brands is expected to increase significantly, which is expected to open the space for domestic replacement of connectors.
New energy vehicles have high-quality customer resources and profound accumulation of power replacement connector technology. In the field of new energy vehicles, the company's customers include t customers, Weilai and other new car manufacturers, domestic car manufacturers such as SAIC, FAW and Byd Company Limited(002594) , overseas car manufacturers such as Ford and Nissan, and power battery manufacturers such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Yinlong new energy. The technical ability of the company's high-voltage connector has been recognized by many high-quality customers. The company is the core supplier of electric connectors of Weilai automobile. From 2018 to 2020, the company sold 78000 sets of electric connectors to Weilai automobile, during which Weilai automobile shipped 76000 vehicles. The power exchange connector has unique technical barriers. It should have large floating compensation capacity, high service life and low maintenance cost. In the process of long-term cooperation with Weilai, the technology level of the company's power exchange connector has been deeply accumulated, and the first mover advantage is remarkable. Under the joint catalysis of policy promotion and market demand, in addition to manufacturers who have long been committed to the construction of replacement power stations such as Weilai, Aodong and bertan, different types of participants such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Geely and GCL energy have invested in the construction of replacement power stations. With the gradual improvement of power exchange infrastructure, the proportion of electric vehicle type is expected to increase, and the company is expected to fully benefit as the leader of power exchange connector.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's operating income in 2021 / 22 / 23 will be RMB 900 / 14.1 / 2.28 billion, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 115 / 197 / 316 million. Considering the high quality of the company's customer structure and significant technical advantages, combined with the valuation of comparable companies and the growth rate of the company's net profit, we give the company 50 times PE in 2023, with a corresponding target market value of 15.8 billion yuan and a corresponding target price of 146 yuan. For the first time, the investment rating of "Buy-A" is given.
Risk tip: the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the replacement process of domestic connectors is lower than expected, and downstream customers change suppliers
