\u3000\u3000 Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) (603128)
Key investment points
Sign a strategic cooperation framework with postal express to complement each other’s advantages and unite the strong
The company announced the signing of a strategic cooperation framework with postal express, which involves a number of businesses, mainly including China, international mail delivery, express delivery, freight forwarding, supply chain and so on, in order to give full play to the advantages of both sides, so as to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. Specific cooperation contents:
1) promote the construction of global hubs, backbone networks and ports, and establish global transportation networks such as aviation and international railways;
2) strengthen the sharing of overseas customs clearance resources and improve the processing capacity of key links;
3) jointly build the capacity of landing distribution and two-way cargo assembly, and improve the operation efficiency of international network. Following the previous Da’an project, the company further deepened its strategic cooperation with postal express this time, which is expected to accelerate the expansion of cross-border e-commerce business scale and improve profitability. It is the first important strategy after the company completes the reorganization of the logistics sector of central enterprises.
In the performance forecast, the profit for 21 years is 822-902 million yuan, of which the profit for Q4 is 152-232 million yuan, benefiting from the increase in the proportion of direct customers, the extension of the service chain and the extension increment of emerging business forms. At the same time, the company deepens the implementation of the two wheel drive strategy of marketing and science and technology. The company forecasts that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 822-902 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 55% – 70%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 801-878 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 55% – 70%. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 152-232 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20% – 83%. With the continuous deepening of the company’s service capacity, the business volume and service premium are expected to continue to increase, and the company’s performance is expected to continue to grow high in 2022.
The company’s international air and sea freight forwarding has been basically consolidated, and cross-border e-commerce logistics has created the second growth pole. In terms of international freight forwarding business, the company has outstanding advantages in cargo volume scale, resource integration and customer structure, and has built a core scarcity barrier. In terms of cross-border e-commerce logistics business, the scale of China’s cross-border e-commerce export logistics increased by 22.5% at a compound growth rate of 21e-25e. Combined with the company’s positive extension expansion rhythm and excellent post merger management, it was able to deeply cut into emerging tracks to obtain relatively high premium dividends of service quality and performance chain. In addition, we believe that the dividend after the resource integration of the logistics sector of central enterprises will gradually highlight, and we are optimistic about the strategic value of the company, as the only entity operating cross-border comprehensive logistics in the listed platforms of the two groups, to undertake cross-border logistics business in the process of China’s manufacturing going to sea.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering that the company will benefit from the dividends from the strategic integration of central enterprises’ logistics platforms and the gradual prominence of the strategic value of cross-border logistics core assets under the blessing of top-level design in the future, and cross-border e-commerce logistics will build an important second growth pole, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 869 million yuan, 1108 million yuan and 1397 million yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 63.8%, 27.5% and 26.1% respectively, Maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: the price of international cargo transportation fluctuates greatly; Cross border e-commerce consumer demand fell; The integration progress of logistics platforms of central enterprises was less than expected.
