\u3000\u3000 China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) (600150)
Events
Recently, the company issued an announcement on foreign investment related party transactions, announcing that it plans to increase the capital of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) new company jointly with China shipbuilding industry group and China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) .
Brief comment
Focus on the main business and develop healthily
After the joint reorganization of China shipbuilding industry group and China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Group, the company has formed horizontal competition with China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) in the field of diesel power business. Through this transaction, the diesel power business of China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) group will be integrated into China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) . China Shipbuilding Power Group will no longer be included in the scope of the company's consolidated statements. The company indirectly enjoys the operating income of the future development of diesel power related businesses through participating in the newly established company, which is conducive to clarifying the company's main business positioning within the group and promoting the healthy development of the enterprise.
As the core listing platform of the group's main civil products industry, taking into account the coordinated development of military products, after asset restructuring, China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) controls four subsidiaries of Jiangnan Shipyard, Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co.Ltd(600648) shipbuilding, CSSC Chengxi and Guangzhou shipbuilding international, covering the upstream and downstream of the shipbuilding industry chain. The company is engaged in the construction of large-scale oil tankers, special cargo ships and other large-scale civil cargo ships, including the construction of large-scale ships, self unloading ships and other large-scale civil cargo ships. Since the completion of major asset restructuring, the company has further expanded its product business scope, added military ship manufacturing and repair related businesses, basically covering all types of ships and marine products, and strengthened the positioning of the company as the listing platform of ship and marine business under China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) group.
New orders have increased significantly, both volume and price have risen, and the industry inflection point may come
According to Clarkson data, in 2021, 39.7 million deadweight tons of shipbuilding were completed in China, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, accounting for 48.4% of the world. Orders for new ships were 67.07 million dwt, up 131.8% year-on-year, accounting for 48.8% of the world. At the end of December, orders for handheld ships were 95.84 million dwt, up 34.8% year-on-year, accounting for 48.1% of the world. In December 2021, the Clarkson new ship price index closed at 154 points, up 22.7% year-on-year and basically flat month on month. In addition, the demand for periodic renewal and replacement of existing mainstream ships is increasing. In recent years, the pressure from the global shipping industry on carbon emission reduction and environmental protection will also promote the renewal of existing ships, the price of new orders will increase steadily, and the industry is expected to usher in an inflection point of simultaneous rise in volume and price.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: the turning point of the industry is approaching and the recovery is imminent. As the leader of ship construction, the company will fully benefit, be optimistic about the future development prospect of the company and maintain the "overweight" rating
We judge that the international shipping market has warmed up, the demand for container shipping is strong, the global new shipbuilding market is active, the three major indicators of China's shipbuilding have achieved rapid growth, and the international market share remains leading. As a leader in the industry, the company will fully benefit. At present, the shipbuilding industry is in the boom rising cycle. As the leader of the global shipbuilding industry, the company will fully benefit from the rising cycle of the industry in the future. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company in the 21st-23rd year will be 56.314 billion yuan, 61.534 billion yuan and 70.355 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 498 million yuan, 883 million yuan and 1.374 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 62.75%, 77.31% and 55.61% respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 192.6, 108.6 and 69.8 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk: the order of civil products is less than expected; The prosperity of the industry has declined; The price of raw materials has risen.
