\u3000\u3000 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858)
Since the second half of 2021, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ‘s valuation in high-end Baijiu has been suppressed. As of February 24, 2022, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) / Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) / Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ‘s PETTM was 44/32/42 times, respectively, according to Wind’s consistent earnings expectations, corresponding to 2022’s PE times 36/26/32 times, and the current Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) valuation level in high-end Baijiu is obviously low. Since 2021, the value of Baijiu has been mainly evaluated by digestion and valuation. As a weathervane, the valuation level of five Lu has been shifted down. From the second half of 2021, the valuation level of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has gradually lagged behind Moutai and Laojiao.
1) the market is worried about the change of management. Since July 2021, some senior executives of the company have been adjusted, and chairman Li Shuguang has reached the retirement age. The market is worried about the stability of the internal management.
2) the pace of raising the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rating is slower than the market expectation. Since the beginning of 2021, the market has been more concerned about when the price of puwu will stand at 1000 yuan. However, this expectation has not been realized. Especially from July to August of 21, the price of puwu has shown an obvious downward trend. The reason may be that: ① the company’s control of quantity is less than expected. On the one hand, some undelivered goods will be transferred to 21 years in 2020. In addition, 21q2 company takes the price first and has strict control over delivery. It began to increase delivery in August, resulting in more short-term supply. ② Affected by external regulatory policies and internal management adjustments, the company’s price control is weakened. ③ Repeated outbreaks in some areas have also caused a certain disturbance to the demand.
3) the actual performance of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is slightly lower than previously expected. Classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is a high-end product with a price band of 2000 yuan. Since late July 2021, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has held marketing meetings in major markets and adopted the “1 + N + 2” channel model for classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . At that time, the market attention was high. According to the recent feedback, the actual dynamic sales of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) was slightly lower than previously expected. The reason may be that: ① classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) needs a long time to cultivate consumers, and the increase of quantity is a gradual process. ② Since the second half of the year, the wholesale price of Feitian Maotai has cooled down, and the price difference between Feitian Maotai and classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has narrowed, resulting in the weakening of the cost performance of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) for some consumers.
At the current time point, we believe that the valuation level of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is expected to improve.
1) the personnel changes of the management have been implemented, and the concern about the stability of the team is expected to be gradually relieved. On February 18, 2022, according to the announcement of Yibin Municipal People’s government and the joint stock company, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) leadership change was officially implemented. Zeng Congqin served as the chairman of the group, recommended Zou Tao as the general manager of the group, Jiang Wenge as the general manager of the joint stock company, and chairman Li Shuguang officially left his post. The management of the group is handed over in an orderly manner. At present, the management team has rich working experience in Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and the sales system is gradually stable.
2) the upward rating of the eighth generation is expected to become a catalyst. At present, Henan and other regions have reported that the eighth generation’s wholesale price is 960-970 yuan. After October 21, with the completion of most product shipments, the wholesale price has rebounded, and the possibility of subsequent wholesale price rise is high, mainly due to: ① the actual shipment in 21 years is affected by the quota not issued in 20 years. At present, the problems left over from history are gradually solved. From the past performance, the actual dynamic sales CAGR in 2019-2021 is estimated to reach 14%, In 22 years, the company’s control over quantity is expected to be strengthened. In addition, from the perspective of channel feedback, the company puts more emphasis on the quality of dynamic sales. With the end of the peak season of the Spring Festival, the pressure of volume has eased, and price support has gradually become an important work at present. ② Considering the planned / unplanned proportion in the 21st year, it is estimated that the comprehensive cost of the eighth generation is about 910 yuan / bottle. At the end of November, the channel fed back that the actual cost of the eighth generation increased, and the comprehensive price signed in the 22nd year reached 969 yuan / bottle, an increase of about 6%. The increase in cost is conducive to supporting the strong wholesale price.
3) the pace of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) sales slows down, and the product cultivation is expected to be effective gradually. The strategic positioning of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) as a high-end large single product remains unchanged. Its previous performance was slightly lower than expected, which has been reflected in the valuation discount. According to channel feedback, the signing rhythm of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has slowed down and the ex factory price has increased in 2022. At present, the pressure of volume increase has been reduced, and the subsequent price support and consumer cultivation are expected to be effective gradually.
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the demand is stable, and the strong brand power in the 1000 yuan price band is a strong support for the fundamentals. Although Baijiu Baijiu has a certain impact on the consumption of liquor, the demand for the high-end liquor is relatively rigid. It is mainly based on gifts and small-scale business banquets, and the toughness is relatively prominent. Therefore, the demand for high-end Baijiu is more robust, which is also verified by feedback from the channel. The brand image of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in the 1000 yuan price band has been relatively stable, and the actual moving sales are smooth. In 21 years, the actual digestion of products is better than the delivery situation. Major markets such as Henan and Jiangsu feed back that the actual moving sales growth rate of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is high.
The short-term dynamic sales are stable, and the revenue performance of 22q1 and the whole year is expected to continue to grow steadily. According to channel feedback, at present, the progress of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) payment collection is more than 40%. Some major merchants complete the annual payment collection by acceptance bill, and the delivery progress is more than 30%, maintaining a normal rhythm. The performance in the peak season of the Spring Festival is stable, and the certainty of Q1 performance growth is high. Throughout the year, the price increase of the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and the increase of the volume of 1618 products contributed to double-digit growth. After the price increase of series wines, it is also aimed at higher goals. It is expected to maintain a 15% revenue growth and continue high-quality development throughout the year.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: maintain the net profit forecast of 2021-23 to be RMB 23968 / 28.725/34.208 billion respectively, the corresponding EPS is RMB 6.17/7.40/8.81 respectively, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 31 / 25 / 21 times. The company’s valuation has a margin of safety, and the fundamentals are stable. It is expected to see marginal improvement in the follow-up, and the “buy” rating is reiterated.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation is grim, demand for high-end Baijiu is weak, and the company’s price performance is not as effective as expected.
