\u3000\u3000 Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) (688017)
Event: on the evening of February 24, the company released the 2021 performance express.
The performance is bright under the scale effect. The performance after deducting non-profit in 2021 increased by about 219% year-on-year
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 440 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 191 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 133%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of 149 million yuan after deduction, a year-on-year increase of 219%. It is estimated that the net interest rate in 2021 is about 43%, an increase of about 5pct compared with 2020. Among them, Q4 achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 50 million yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 167%. The net interest rate in a single quarter was about 40%, an increase of about 14 PCT compared with the same period in 2020, and a decrease of about 3 PCT compared with Q3. At the best level in the same period over the years. It is estimated that the company's harmonic reducer capacity in 2021 has doubled compared with that in 2020. With the further improvement of capacity in 2022, the performance in 2022 is expected to maintain high growth under the effect of scale.
Industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) : the increase in the proportion of collaboration Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) is expected to boost the demand for reducer products
At present, most of the company's products are used in the traditional industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) field. Collaboration Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) requires about 6-7 harmonic reducers / set, which is twice the number of harmonic reducers used in traditional industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) . According to IFR data, the proportion of global collaborative Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) sales in industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) sales increased from 3% to 6% in 2017-2020, and the global industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) sales CAGR was about 8% in 2020-2024. Loup ventures predicts that collaboration Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) accounts for 34% of industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) in 2025. We believe that with the rapid growth of cooperation Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) penetration, the demand of harmonic reducer industry will be further opened.
Non Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) fields: mechatronics products focus on the field of machine tools, which is expected to broaden the second growth curve
Mechatronics mainly integrates servo system, harmonic reducer, sensor and other parts into modules to improve the comprehensive performance of products. The downstream of the company's mechatronics products is mainly in the field of machine tools. We expect that the consumption of harmonic reducer CAGR in China's machine tool industry will be about 43% from 2020 to 2025. At present, the company is in the stage of small-scale test in the field of machine tools, and the technology has reached the advanced level in China. In the future, the electromechanical integration business is expected to continue to expand and become the second growth curve.
Domestic harmonic reducer leaders continue to increase R & D investment, and the new E-Series harmonic reducer is expected to open up new fields
The company continues to increase R & D investment. In 2022, the company will launch a new generation of E-series products, which will significantly reduce the vibration of harmonic reducer while having stronger sealing. We believe that the company is expected to rely on P, y and N series products to continuously establish its industrial position in the Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry, while relying on e series to accelerate the layout of semiconductor, medical, assembly and other industries with high vibration requirements, and its profitability is expected to be further improved.
Profit forecast
At present, the prosperity of the downstream industry continues. With the gradual expansion of the company's project with an annual output of 500000 units, the company's profitability is expected to be further improved with the scale effect. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022-2023 will be RMB 290 / 400 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 52% / 38%, corresponding to pe56 / 40x respectively. The company's technical capability is independent and controllable, the industry boom is high, and the rating of "overweight" is maintained.
Risk tips
1) the company's product expansion and production expansion progress is less than expected; 2) The prosperity of downstream industries is lower than expected.
