\u3000\u3000 Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) (688169)
Q4’s revenue exceeded expectations, the performance was slightly lower than expectations, the inflection point of net interest rate had reached, and the “buy” rating remained unchanged
The company issued a performance express, which is expected to achieve a revenue of 5.837 billion (+ 29%) in 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.402 billion (+ 2%). In 2021q4 alone, it is expected to achieve revenue of 2.010 billion (+ 30%), including private brand revenue of 1.952 billion (+ 39%); Net profit attributable to parent company: 386 million (- 18%); The net interest rate is 19.2% (- 11.1pcts). The revenue of 2021q4 exceeded expectations and the performance was slightly lower than expectations. The main reason was that the net interest rate was dragged down by the increase of marketing expenses and the rise of raw materials. Considering the positive factors such as the improvement of product structure, the slowdown of raw material price rise and positive operating leverage effect, it is expected that the net interest rate of 2022q1 will usher in an inflection point. We lowered the profit forecast for 2021-2023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-2023 will be RMB 1.40/17.8/2.38 billion (original value of RMB 1.48/20.1/2.54 billion in 2021-2023), EPS will be RMB 21.0/26.7/35.7 (original value of RMB 22.2/30.0/3.8 billion in 2021-2023), and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 32.0/25.2/18.8 times. Considering the rise of raw materials as a short-term factor, the “buy” rating will remain unchanged.
In 2022, China has a strong demand for self-cleaning, and the top brand is always strong. It is optimistic that the domestic sales of the company will continue to grow rapidly
In 2022, with the strong demand for self-cleaning products and the widening of price band, the industry is expected to achieve both volume and price increases. As of February 20, the company’s domestic sales have continued to exceed expectations and its share has increased significantly since 2022. According to the business consultant, stone Ali channel has accumulated Gmv + 104.0% since 2022, and its sales volume and market share have reached 16.0%. According to ovicloud, stone’s online sales have accounted for 19.9% since 2022, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.8pcts. Considering that the proportion of self-cleaning products continues to increase, and the price of self-cleaning products G10 is higher than that of t7s series, it is expected that the domestic sales will continue to grow rapidly in 2022.
In 2022, overseas new products are bright, in line with the popularity of medium and high-end LDS, and are optimistic about the quarterly improvement of the company’s export sales
According to JS data, as of February 20, the sales volume of shitoumeiya in February 2022 was + 2.7%, returning to positive growth, with a significant increase compared with January (- 13.8%). Considering that the export of 2022q2-q4 ushers in a low base and the listing of new overseas floor sweepers, we are optimistic that the company’s export sales will improve quarter by quarter in 2022. In 2022, shark will launch medium and high-end LDS products. With the joint efforts of Chinese brands such as stone, Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , eufy and so on, medium and high-end LDS products in overseas Sweeper Market are expected to be popular in 2022. The s7maxv series of all-round models launched by the company at CES 2022 has strong product strength and high-end positioning. With the rich product series of overseas cost-effective floor sweeper Q7 MAX + and floor washer dyad, we are optimistic that the company will seize the opportunity of tuyere and further improve its share.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; The price of raw materials continues to rise; Overseas sales did not meet expectations.
