\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Microport Endovascular Medtech (Group) Co.Ltd(688016) (688016)
Investment logic
Many kinds of products are introduced, and traditional businesses usher in new space. Since the listing of castor and Minos, the company's aortic product line has achieved rapid and sustained growth. At present, many heavy products are newly listed or about to be approved. The new generation branch fontus intraoperative stent has outstanding advantages in shortening the operation time, reducing the probability of complications, increasing support and flexibility. The distal micropore design of Talos thoracic aorta covered stent solves the limitations of some traditional stents, and is expected to replace the old products to achieve rapid volume after listing. The company will continue to expand its innovation and upgrading layout in the aortic field in the future.
Lower extremity arterial interventional surgery has great potential, and drug balloon is in a rapid growth period. Affected by the increase in the number of China's diabetic patients, the number of patients with lower limb arterial diseases is large. In China, nearly 40 million people were diagnosed in China in 2019, but the interventional operation volume in China was only 108 thousand cases, and the permeability was less than 3 per thousand. Reewarmptx drug balloon has achieved rapid promotion and sales with good performance after it was launched in 2020. At present, it has covered more than 300 terminal hospitals and is expected to become a core product in the field of peripheral blood vessels in the future.
The R & D layout of peripheral vein is rich, breaking through the R & D of high-end varieties of tumor intervention. At present, the subsidiary Shanghai lanmai has many peripheral vein research projects. Venous interventional surgery such as iliac vein stent interventional surgery and percutaneous mechanical thrombectomy is still in the rapid promotion period in China. The subdivision track has been listed, and the products are scarce and the market potential is large. In 2021, the company newly established Shanghai tuomai, which mainly focuses on products in the field of tumor intervention. Tips stents and other varieties are expected to enter the stage of clinical implantation quickly, and the direction of long-term product R & D and expansion is rich.
The joint promotion of various overseas products has accelerated the expansion of international business. In 2020, the global market scale of aortic covered stent reached US $1.7 billion, accounting for less than 15% in China. The overseas market scale space is broader, and at present, domestic enterprises that realize large-scale products to sea are relatively scarce. The company has increased the expansion of overseas market since 2018, and has achieved clinical implantation in at least 16 countries or regions, Overseas product promotion is expected to accelerate in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 316 / 4.25/577 million, with a year-on-year increase of 47% / 35% / 36%, the corresponding EPS will be RMB 4.39/5.91/8.01/share respectively, and the PE multiples corresponding to the current price will be 45, 33 and 24 times. With reference to the comparable valuation of Listed Companies in the same industry, the company is given a target market value of 16.9 billion yuan within 12 months, a target price of 235.03 yuan / share, and a "buy" rating is maintained. risk
Risk of medical insurance fee control policy; The risk that the research and development of new products does not meet the expectations; Risk of product promotion failing to meet expectations; Risk of overseas trade friction.
