\u3000\u3000 Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) (688677)
Event: the company issued a performance express. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 310 million yuan (+ 12.53%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 118 million yuan (+ 22.23%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 94.04 million yuan (+ 12.07%). The performance is in line with our expectations.
The superposition of the epidemic and exchange rate fluctuations affected the apparent growth rate, and the overall performance of the company increased steadily: in 2021, the epidemic in China was repeated, and the single day diagnosis of overseas epidemic reached new highs, which affected the normal business activities of the company; In 2021, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar continued to rise. Due to exchange rate fluctuations, the company's annual operating revenue and operating profit decreased by about 15 million yuan. After adding back the exchange loss, the company's operating revenue was about 325 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 18%.
The core business is expected to usher in an acceleration period this year, and the optical business will grow rapidly: affected by the epidemic and the high base in 2020, the business growth of the company's medical device sector in 2021 will be affected, and we expect it to be close to 10%; With the launch of a new generation of fluorescent machines by Stryker this year, we believe that the growth rate of the medical device sector is expected to increase significantly this year; In the optical sector, we expect the growth rate to be about 25% last year. As the company continues to expand new business areas this year, we expect the growth of optical business to be further accelerated.
The commercialization of independent brands in China has started, and the expansion of OEM of complete machines is expected to significantly increase the performance: according to the frost Sullivan report, the scale of China's hard mirror market reached 6.53 billion yuan in 2019, with a compound growth rate of 13.8% from 2015 to 2019; Among them, the fluorescent hard mirror market is 110 million yuan, accounting for only 1.7% of the hard mirror market. The market scale is expected to reach 3.52 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 32% of China's hard mirror market. In September 2021, the company's 1080p imaging system was approved and officially launched its own brand of fluorescent whole machine system. In January 2022, the company's 4K fluorescent imaging system was approved, which is expected to fully benefit from the high vision of China's fluorescent endoscope industry. China's fluorescent hard lens market is in the early stage of high-speed and large-scale, and there are few market participants. As the only supplier of the global fluorescent endoscope giant, the company expects that the whole system will be highly competitive in the market, and is expected to continue to benefit from the general trend of domestic substitution of hard lens + improvement of fluorescence penetration rate. In addition to its own brand, the company has established a joint venture with Sinopharm and discussed cooperation with Stryker. In the future, it is expected to take multiple measures to share the broad market in China.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering that the company's core ODM business is expected to speed up, we raised the forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from RMB 169 / 220 million to RMB 179 / 245 million from 2022 to 2023. The current market value corresponds to 35 times and 25 times of PE from 2022 to 2023 respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: new product promotion is less than expected risk, exchange profit and loss risk, etc
