\u3000\u3000 Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) (002027)
Core view
Macro economy, retail channel construction and user time allocation are the core elements affecting the demand of ladder media. We believe that the budget preemption of brand advertisers by the latter two factors has slowed down, and ladder media, as a segment of brand advertising, is expected to benefit from this long-term trend. From the perspective of channels, during the period of rapid construction of retail channels, the demand for brand advertising is restrained. Over the past 21 years, the growth of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) retail channels has slowed down, and the demand for brand advertising is expected to continue to release. From the perspective of user duration distribution, the Internet competes around the entertainment duration of users. Ladder media belongs to business and life circle advertising, and the duration is stable. It is still one of the important positions of brand advertising. The characteristics of focus brand and duration independence are expected to benefit from the slowing down of the negative impact of brand advertising and the upward elasticity of the macro economy.
Looking at the macro factors in the long-term cycle, the focus prediction for 1-2 years is more dependent on the changes of meso industries. Combined with the industrial development stage and customer structure, consumer goods, Internet and social services are the core sectors of the company. The daily consumer goods industry has a stable growth and fierce structural competition. Over the past 21 years, each subdivided industry has maintained a growth of more than 10%. Under the recovery of the 22 epidemic, the high growth of income in this sector can be continued. The growth of the Internet industry is stable, entering the cross domain competition stage of the head platform, and the demand for advertising is stable. At present, the proportion of commercial services and leisure entertainment sector is low. In the post epidemic recovery and brand formation stage, the brand demand is expected to increase. The company launched focus direct investment products in combination with the characteristics of the service industry to meet the demand of some scattered point investment of the Bureau of small and medium-sized enterprises.
After the optimization of customer structure, the stability is improved, and the hanging rate of short quarterly journals has a great impact on Sustainable tracking. We expect the company to enter a stable growth period. After the demand impact in 18 / 19 years, the revenue growth and gross profit margin are expected to be relatively stable. Continue to pay attention to the index of the hanging rate of the off-season periodicals. The point filling rate remains high in the peak season and fluctuates more in the off-season. Over the past 20 years, the rich number of customers has helped to improve the listing rate, promote the continuous recovery of single point revenue, and there is plenty of room for the improvement of point value.
China's point space is limited, and the market outside the mainland is actively expanded. From the data of China's urban population and elevator ownership, the high growth period of point scale has ended and entered the stage of stable growth, and the growth depends more on the improvement of point income. According to the detailed calculation of the market outside the mainland by country and region, the market space is about 12 billion, and the long-term growth depends on the regional economic growth. The current market share of focus is low, and the regional expansion consolidates the growth attribute of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
During the transition period of business development and stable growth, the structural adjustment is positive and effective. Internet advertising has not had a fundamental impact on the value of point advertising. We predict that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 15.291 billion yuan, 16.907 billion yuan and 19.018 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 6.098 billion yuan, 6.990 billion yuan and 8.007 billion yuan respectively, the 22pe of the comparable company will be 19x, and the corresponding target price will be 9.05 yuan / share, "Buy" rating is given for the first time.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic fluctuations; Industry competition intensifies; Uncertainty of advertising market demand; Impairment risk of bad debt provision; Changes in regional market assumptions have an impact on the results
