\u3000\u3000 Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) (002508)
Key investment points
Increase in retail volume share + iterative upgrading of products, and the volume and price of the company's main cigarette machine industry increased in 21 years
1) volume: according to the industry online data, the sales volume of range hood industry in 2021 was 16.38 million, which was basically the same as that in 2020. Boss range hoods shipped 2.93 million units in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 5.02%. In 2021, the sales share of boss range hoods was 17.88%, an increase of 0.88 PCT compared with 2020. In the future, the boss is expected to sink the channel through online approved stores such as tmall store and JD store, so as to reach more consumers. 2) Price: according to the data of ovicloud, the average price of the boss's range hood online and offline in 2021 was + 12.90% and + 6.51% year-on-year respectively. Under the pressure of raw material price, the boss carried out product iterative upgrading in time and launched a dual chamber intelligent range hood with a unit price of more than 6000 yuan. The high suction, low noise and intelligent products have been recognized by the market, and the average price of the range hood has been structurally improved.
Boss dishwasher terminal retail performed well, and the second growth curve of emerging categories was clear
1) in 2021, the online and offline retail sales of boss dishwasher were + 120.59% and + 113.55% year-on-year respectively, and the share of online and offline retail sales of boss dishwasher was 5.15% and 17.51% respectively, which increased by 2.56 PCT and 7.96 PCT respectively compared with 2020 (ovicloud data). 2) We are optimistic that the boss's emerging categories will contribute new increment, and the boss will launch new integrated stove products in 2021. As a kitchen appliance leader, Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) brand recognition is high, and the company has a wide distribution of channel terminals. In the future, it is expected to continue to give full play to its channel advantages in the expansion of integrated stove business. 3) The scale of the emerging kitchen electricity market is growing rapidly. According to the industry online data, the shipments of dishwashers and integrated stoves in 2021 were 2.06 million and 2.8 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.44% and + 27.93% respectively.
Affected by the bad debt provision of real estate enterprise customers, the company's profit in 21 years is under pressure
1) according to the announcement of the company, the company has individually withdrawn bad debt reserves for some fine decoration business customers with difficult financial conditions. It is estimated that the total amount withdrawn in 2021 will be about 710 million yuan (630 million yuan of Evergrande + 80 million yuan of other customers). The company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.334 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 19.66%. 2) If the impact of bad debt provision is restored, we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be RMB 1.898 billion ~ 1.934 billion (assuming that the income tax rate is 15% ~ 20%), corresponding to the annual growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company of 14.27% ~ 16.44%. 3) If the impact of bad debt provision is excluded, we believe that the company's performance is basically in line with expectations.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company's emerging categories have entered the high growth track, the leading position of traditional smoke stove consumption is stable, and the company's omni-channel layout. Therefore, we are optimistic about the 22-year performance restoration of the company as a real estate leader. We estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 10.148/119.11/13.864 billion yuan respectively, with the corresponding growth rate of 24.84% / 17.37% / 16.40% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.334/2.254/2.648 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 24x / 14x / 12x respectively. Give the company 20x PE for 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 47.40 yuan, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The prosperity of real estate has declined significantly; Industry competition intensifies
