\u3000\u3000 China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) (601985)
Key investment points:
In January, the market-oriented trading power increased by about 0.1 yuan / kWh year-on-year, which is expected to thicken the company's performance. In January 2022, the price of nuclear power participating in market-oriented trading in all provinces of the company rose to varying degrees. Generally speaking, the price of market-oriented trading rose by nearly 0.1 yuan / kWh compared with the price after discount in previous years, that is, after filling the discount range of 0.03-0.05 yuan / kwh in previous years, it can still rise by 0.03-0.05 yuan / kWh on the basis of nuclear power benchmark price. For example, according to the calculation of 70 billion market-oriented trading electricity, assuming that the annual market-oriented trading electricity increases by 0.04 yuan / kWh on the basis of no discount, it is expected to increase the company's performance by more than 2.5 billion yuan.
In 2021, the new installed capacity of new energy will be over completed, and it is expected to further accelerate in 2022. The company previously said at the performance exchange meeting in the third quarter of 2021 that the new energy installed capacity from 2021 to 2023 will not be less than 3 / 4 / 5GW. By the end of 2021, the company's new energy installed capacity has reached 8.8733 million KW, including 2.6347 million kw of wind power (a year-on-year increase of 88000 kW) and 6.2386 million kw of photovoltaic (a year-on-year increase of 2.75 million KW). A total of 3.63 million kw of new energy installed capacity will be added in 2021, exceeding the previous plan. We believe that considering the trend of reducing the cost of scenery and interest rate this year, the equipment cost and capital cost of scenery projects are expected to be "double reduced". Combined with the environment of steady growth of green infrastructure this year, the company's new energy installation target in 2022 is expected to be further increased to 6Gw.
Beach + mining area, supporting the company's new energy goal of the 14th five year plan. The company's total installed capacity target in 2025 is 56 million KW, of which the installed capacity of new energy is about 30 million KW. The five nuclear power bases of the company from north to south, Tianwan, Qinshan, Sanmen, Fuqing and Changjiang, have beaches around the nuclear power plant for photovoltaic projects, of which the 2 million KW beach photovoltaic project of Tianwan nuclear power plant has been prepared as a major project in Jiangsu Province in 2022; In addition, CNNC's mining areas in all parts of the country, especially in the three north region, can also be used as potential development objects.
Profit forecast. The company's main business of nuclear power has brought abundant and stable cash flow, which is enough to support the rapid growth of scenery. During the "14th five year plan" period, the growth of the company's installed capacity mainly depends on wind power and photovoltaic. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 63.11/73.86/76.45 billion yuan in 2021 / 2022 / 2023, net profit attributable to parent company of 8.449/112.7/12.056 billion yuan, EPS of 0.48/0.64/0.69 yuan and corresponding PE of 15.1/11.32/10.58 yuan. Considering the steady increase of the company's nuclear power and new energy installed capacity, the rise of market-oriented transaction electricity price and the increase of nuclear power utilization hours, the company is given 15-18 times PE in 2022, with the corresponding share price of 9.6-11.52 yuan, maintaining the "recommended" rating of the company.
Risk tip: due to nuclear power safety accidents, the installed capacity of Fengguang is less than expected, and the business sector is adjusted.
