Grassroots research conclusion: different platforms have different resource endowments, different objectives and specific strategies, forming user differentiation, which may eventually lead to the stratification of platform users and competition pattern. The strategies of all platforms come down in one continuous line under the same theme. Duoduo master station has a good foundation for sinking the market, buys more vegetables, compresses the cost in the whole link of commodity & Performance & head end, and establishes the user mind [cheap] around the "extreme cost performance" strategy, which is more helpful to open the sinking market and customers who pay attention to price, especially the fourth and fifth tier cities, counties and towns. Taobao and meituan's main stations have a good market foundation on the high side. Compared with buying more vegetables, taocai and meituan prefer to focus on "good user experience" and pay attention to goods & performance quality & strong incentive. In particular, taocai aims at "similar price and much better goods", The establishment of user intelligence [good quality] is more conducive to the rise of the market and the decline of users (we understand that: the decline of users in the medium high line market + the high line users in the decline of the market, and the people who have certain demands for quality), which may be the highest in the city line (the second and third lines). Meituan preference is between buying more vegetables and shopping for vegetables. In addition to the quality of goods & performance, it also pursues the richness of goods and establishes the mind of users [rich goods & better quality], so as to meet the needs of more users with better quality and rich quality. Therefore, Duoduo is suitable for the most sinking market, panning vegetables is suitable for the sinking users in the rising market, and meituan is between the two. The future user / competition pattern or stratification.
Review in 2021: all platforms focused on scale growth, completed basic capacity-building from 0 to 1, decreased subsidies in supervision, developed steadily, and small and medium-sized platforms gradually withdrew. In terms of strategy, 2021 is a year of scale expansion, infrastructure construction and strategic exploration. It has met the requirements of commodity coverage in most cities across the country and performance on the next day (high performance rate at 11 points), and the business has grown rapidly. In terms of policy, 2021 is a year for the tightening and implementation of policy supervision. It is prohibited to reduce the speed of business under negative gross profit. At the end of the year, the easing signal is gradually released to guide community group purchase of enabled agriculture and develop in a healthy and stable manner. In terms of competition pattern, in 2021, the clearing of small and medium-sized platforms was accelerated, and the situation of giants was formed. Buy more vegetables / meituan was preferred to be in the first tier, and taocai / Xingsheng was preferred to be in the second tier. Taocai was accompanied by strategic collaborative upgrading, and the later ranked to catch up with Xingsheng.
Outlook for 2022: from scale growth focusing on speed to high-quality growth focusing on profitability, the growth rate may slow down, the pattern of giant confrontation tends to stabilize, or develop around the two main lines of raising UE + penetration and sinking. Strategically, we expect that 2022 will be a year when UE and penetration will sink, and business efficiency will be optimized and UE will be improved through a variety of combinations, such as customer order, gross profit, performance reduction and group efficiency; Compared with last year's focus on urban coverage and growth, 2022 platforms may make more efforts in county / Township markets and open the gap. In terms of growth rate, it may be affected by UE in the short term, which is at a low level (according to Gmv caliber, we expect the average quarterly ring growth to be less than 20%), and the long-term mature steady-state growth rate may be between Internet e-commerce and business supermarkets. In terms of competition pattern, we expect that there will be little change compared with 2021. Buy more vegetables / meituan preference still ranks in the first echelon. Because buy more vegetables is more in line with the sinking market, 2022 is competitive in the first place, and Amoy vegetables ranks third. It is prosperous to maintain the regional advantages of Hunan, but it is difficult to expand the whole country.
Investment proposal and investment object
We are optimistic about the sinking market growth brought by the community group purchase business model and the improvement of commodity supply chain and warehouse allocation efficiency. At present, the business model of community group purchase is not mature, the chain is long and the business is complex. It will become a protracted war in the future. The capacity-building of supply chain and warehouse distribution logistics needs to be continuously polished, which has a great test on the company's capital investment, strategy selection and organization management. It is suggested to pay attention to: pinduoduo (PDD. O, buy), meituan-w (03690, buy), Alibaba SW (09988, buy), JD group SW (09618, buy), and the prosperity and optimization of industrial regional leaders.
Risk tips
Policy supervision risk, business growth does not meet expectations, and the research data may not represent the whole market situation
