Centennial automobile industry ushers in epic opportunities
As an epoch-making product under the Internet wave, the architecture reform of intelligent vehicles follows the path of “mechanical definition – hardware definition – common definition of software and hardware – Software ecological definition”. Under this change, “intelligent cockpit + automatic driving” as an intelligent “hard core” drives the product positioning of cars from travel tools to “mobile third space”; The value of the automobile industry chain will also show the trend of “the total amount will rise and the center of gravity will move backward”; The traditional supply chain pattern will also be broken and driven from the original vertical structure to the flat network model. The role of the main engine factory will be transformed from the manufacturer to the service provider.
Smart cockpit: start from the Internet and attack the meta universe
The intelligent cockpit revolution will follow the horizontal and vertical law of “configuration upgrading + Architecture blending”, and finally realize the attack in the meta universe through the chain evolution of “innovation iteration subversion”. Among them, the subversion of the configuration: that is, the cockpit configuration is innovated internally, and the combination of “LCD instrument + central control screen + HUD + atmosphere Lamp + seat + acoustic system” realizes the scene in the car + multimodal interaction; Externally, it takes “Networking” as the main axis and is equipped with T-box and other networking equipment to connect the interconnection between aiots; Iteration of Architecture: Hardware Architecture: the specific performance of cockpit chip will change to “intelligence + networking”, among which Qualcomm has obvious advantages; As the bottom support of hardware architecture, domain controller’s engineering ability, hardware adaptation ability and bottom software ability are becoming more and more important; Software architecture: the ultimate meaning of intelligent cockpit lies in the confrontation of “ecological level”, and the operating system, algorithm and HMI are the key to its competitiveness. Among them, the underlying OS needs to have the characteristics of “openness and security”; Cockpit algorithm will also focus more on providing users with multimodal interaction; HMI provides a differentiated experience of human-computer interaction; Ecological Innovation: Based on “configuration innovation + Architecture iteration”, the ecological boundary of the cockpit may be transferred to the “third space” to finally realize the bearing of the meta universe.
Autopilot: Deconstruction of “perception decision execution” in the first year of mass production
The realization of automatic driving has equipped the car with “invisible driver” and linked the cockpit to make it a real “mobile third space”. Through the deconstruction of its technology, it can be divided into three links: perception layer, decision-making layer and execution layer. The “golden period” for us to focus on “image acquisition” is the “golden period” for us to focus on “image acquisition” through “sensor disassembly”, and the “golden period” for us to focus on “image acquisition”; Lidar: the industry may usher in the first year of large-scale production, and the investment opportunities in the industrial chain will be determined under the scuffle of OEM manufacturers; High precision map: the turning point of commercialization is coming, and the industrial pattern may be reshaped; Decision making level: Hardware Architecture: the boom of self driving chip and domain controller industry is booming, but there is differentiated competition according to different models / price planning; Software architecture: different from the positioning of the cockpit, the self driving domain pays more attention to function iteration, so its underlying OS needs to have the characteristics of “security and low delay”; The algorithm will also be transformed into a data-driven “functional algorithm”; Executive layer: the advanced technology is wire control technology dominated by active control technology.
Investment suggestion: smart car is another epoch-making subversion after smart phone, but its scale impact and market increment will far exceed that of mobile phone. In the context of the “new four modernizations”, the upgrading of EE architecture will drive the value focus of the industry to shift from hardware to software, and the game rules of the industry will be redefined, whether it is traditional Tier1, tier2 or emerging tier0 5 will usher in epic opportunities. We reiterate once again that the great changes in the smart car industry have started, and the investment opportunities it breeds will be more amazing than the smart phone industry chain 10 years ago. According to the different division of “emerging domains”, we recommend three main lines: cabin domain innovation: focus on Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Guangting information, Foryou Corporation(002906) ; Self driving domain upgrade: focus on Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) , Neusoft Corporation(600718) , and intelligent post market Autel Intelligent Technology Corp.Ltd(688208) ; Component increment: focus on Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Ingenic Semiconductor Co.Ltd(300223) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , torch technology.
Risk tips: market risk, raw material price rise risk, policy risk, technology risk, chip supply chain risk.
