Key investment points: peak shaving, frequency modulation auxiliary services and peak valley electricity price arbitrage are the main income channels of electrochemical energy storage in China, but the income varies greatly in different provinces.
Electrochemical energy storage participates in peak shaving auxiliary services, focusing on Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Shandong and other provinces; Electrochemical energy storage participates in FM auxiliary services, focusing on Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanxi, Mengxi, Ningxia and other provinces and regions; Electrochemical peak valley tou arbitrage focuses on Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other provinces.
Investment point 2 at present, electrochemical energy storage only relies on consumption and abandonment of new energy, peak shaving, frequency modulation and other single ways to obtain income, which is not economical. The shared energy storage of comprehensive multi-income way is an important outbreak point of energy storage on the power generation side and power grid side, and the fire storage combined frequency modulation market is another growth point of energy storage on the power generation side.
Through calculation and analysis, the main problem of electrochemical energy storage is that the energy storage utilization rate is low, resulting in poor economy; The main limitation of participating in FM auxiliary services lies in the relative surplus of FM resources in many provinces and cities, and the income restriction of electrochemical energy storage and simple FM is more. On the whole, shared energy storage is expected to improve the economy by integrating various income channels and improving utilization efficiency, but the overall income still faces many uncertain risks. Driven by the new energy mandatory distribution and storage policy and the construction of grid side demonstration energy storage projects, shared energy storage is expected to become an important explosive point for the development of power generation side and grid side energy storage. In addition, since the combined frequency modulation of fire storage is mainly used to improve the frequency modulation performance of traditional power supply without adding frequency modulation capacity, it is expected to be popularized in more provinces and cities and become a growth point of energy storage on the power generation side.
Key investment points 3 industrial and commercial energy storage has begun to take shape economically in some provinces and cities, and is expected to give priority to rapid development in areas with large peak valley price difference.
Although the electricity price fluctuates, the industrial and commercial electricity price in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other provinces is expected to maintain a large peak valley difference. If it can exceed 0.7 yuan / kWh for a long time, it will be economical for industrial and commercial users in these provinces and cities to develop electrochemical energy storage. Considering the uncertainty of long-term electricity price, industrial and commercial users may still have many concerns about configuring electrochemical energy storage, but the prospect is promising. With the increasing proportion of power consumption of China’s tertiary industry and residential users, the peak valley difference rate of power system will be further widened, and the peak valley price difference is expected to remain high. At the same time, with the promotion of power market-oriented reform, all industrial and commercial users are entering the power market. The improvement of time-of-use price mechanism and the rise of high energy consumption cost will stimulate the electrochemical energy storage allocation demand of industrial and commercial users.
Investment point 4 with the improvement of new energy consumption system and mechanism and the progress of electrochemical energy storage technology, we are optimistic about the continuous improvement of the economy of electrochemical energy storage and realize the transformation from policy driven to market driven.
Under the guidance of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization and the construction direction of new power system, the power price and market mechanism to adapt to the development of new energy are expected to be continuously improved, and the revenue channels of electrochemical energy storage will be continuously expanded. For example, the primary frequency modulation and standby markets have shown practical progress in the near future, such as climbing, moment of inertia New revenue channels such as power capacity cost recovery mechanism have also been favorable policies. At the same time, with the continuous improvement of lithium battery technology and the gradual maturity of emerging technologies such as sodium ion battery, the cost of electrochemical energy storage is expected to be further reduced. Driven by multiple favorable factors, electrochemical energy storage will gradually change from policy driven to market driven, thus ushering in a period of accelerated development.
Investment suggestion at present, the main driving force of electrochemical energy storage in China is still expected to be the new energy distribution and storage policy. In areas with low energy storage utilization and poor income, low-cost energy storage system will still be the main beneficiary. However, with the development of shared energy storage, electrochemical energy storage power stations are showing a centralized and large-scale trend, which is expected to promote the rapid development of high-quality energy storage system and gradually promote the survival of the fittest in the energy storage industry. In addition, scenarios such as fire storage combined frequency modulation and energy storage for industrial and commercial users put forward high requirements for the number of energy storage cycles and safety, which will also help the healthy development of the energy storage industry. Based on this, we give the industry “recommended” rating. In terms of specific targets, it is suggested to pay attention to (1) system integration: leading system integration enterprises [ Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) ] and [ Byd Company Limited(002594) ] benefiting from the growth and healthy development of the industry; (2) Lithium battery link: the energy storage market demand is determined, and the leading enterprises [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ], [ Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ] of lithium iron phosphate battery and [ Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ] of lithium iron phosphate cathode material benefiting from the expected growth of electrochemical energy storage; (3) Energy storage converter: energy storage converter related enterprises [ Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) ], [ Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) ], [ Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) ], [ Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ] and [ Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) ], which are one of the main components of energy storage system cost; (4) Energy storage and temperature control: there is a strong demand for large-scale electrochemical energy storage and temperature control, which is beneficial to the leading enterprises of precision equipment temperature control [ Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) ] and [ Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co.Ltd(300990) ]; (5) Fire protection system: electrochemical energy storage has high safety requirements, which is good for fire alarm enterprises [ Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) ].
Risk Tips 1) changes in policies related to energy storage; 2) The implementation of new energy allocation and storage policy is less than expected; 3) The cost of electrochemical energy storage decreased less than expected; 4) Focus on the company’s performance less than expected; 5) There may be differences between the model assumptions and the actual situation.
