Investment suggestion: continue to be optimistic about steel stocks in the medium term. Against the backdrop of historically high profits and historically low valuations, the possibility of carbon neutralization has brought the ceiling of industry supply. In addition, the raw material side has contributed cost dividends again, and steel stocks will usher in a wave of sector opportunities for double rise in performance and valuation. Optimistic about the low value of high dividend ordinary steel, raw materials and some special steel. First Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) and so on; Focus on Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) , Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) , Hbis Resources Co.Ltd(000923) , etc.
Industry view: the spring market of steel sector may be expected to accelerate. The absolute inventory growth rate was 1.1 million tons last week, which was only lower than the market expectation in February 2020, and the total inventory growth rate was only 2.3 million tons, which was significantly lower than that in February 2020. We expect that the inventory peak after the spring festival may be only about 24 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of more than 25%, which is not only significantly lower than that in 2020 and 2021, but also lower than that in 2018 and 2019. The output tracked in the near future began to recover gradually, but the strength was not strong. Last week, relevant ministries and commissions attacked again to suppress iron ore and increase the pressure on the resumption of production of steel mills. Therefore, we judge that the logic of steel inventory replenishment is stronger after the commencement of construction in March, and the increase of steel price may further exceed the market expectation. The futures level has reflected the expectation of price rise in advance, and the weakness of iron ore has indirectly promoted the accelerated expansion of immediate gross profit of steel. With the peak season approaching, steady growth entering the fulfillment period and the emergence of relevant catalysts, we judge that the spring market of steel stocks is expected to accelerate. Market review: last week (February 13 – February 18), Shenwan steel rose 2.6%, leading the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.5%. The top gainers were Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (19.2%), Yunding Technology Co.Ltd(000409) (13.1%), Sinosteel New Materials Co.Ltd(002057) (10.0%). Last week, the prices of main contracts of screw thread, hot coil, iron ore and coke futures changed by – 3.6%, – 3.2%, – 16.6% and 9.2% respectively compared with the previous week (February 5-february 11); The profits of thread and hot-rolled sector changed by 12.1% and 12.9% respectively compared with the previous week.
Industry trends:
General steel: last week, the social inventory of steel was 16.706 million tons, an increase of 8.7% month on month; Among them, the long timber inventory was 11.116 million tons, an increase of 11.9% month on month; Plate inventory was 5.59 million tons, an increase of 2.8% month on month. In late January, the average inventory of steel mills was 13.68 million tons, an increase of 4.1% month on month. After the blast furnace was eliminated last week, the capacity utilization rate was 61.1%, unchanged month on month. Last week, the shipment volume of 237 steel traders nationwide was 32000 tons, unchanged month on month; Last week, the cargo volume of terminal line snails in Shanghai was 5000 tons, an increase of 275% month on month. The cost lag gross profit of thread, hot rolling, cold rolling and medium and heavy sector tracked are 947, 878, 788 and 967 yuan / ton respectively.
Overseas steel price: last week, China’s steel price composite index was 182.32, down 1.7% month on month.
Iron ore: last week, the shipment volume of iron ore from Australia, Pakistan and India was 21.18 million tons, a month on month decrease of 1.5%; The arrival volume of 6 ports in the North was 11.98 million tons, an increase of 28.9% month on month. Last week, the iron ore port inventory was 160.34 million tons, an increase of 0.9% month on month. Last week, the average daily port dredging volume of imported mines in the port was 2.55 million tons, an increase of 2.8% month on month.
Coking coal and coke: last week, the commencement of coking continued to decline, and the production enthusiasm of coke enterprises was low in the state of loss. Last week, the coking coal market operated weakly and stably. Ferroalloy: on the whole, silicon manganese operated in shock, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Ferrosilicon futures showed strong performance last week, while spot performance was relatively general. On the whole, the current spot performance of ferrosilicon is relatively stable.
Ferroalloy: last week, the silicon manganese market maintained stable operation and the transaction was light; Ferrosilicon market fluctuated last week. According to Mysteel’s official website, it is expected that the short-term price of silicon and manganese will remain stable, and the inventory of ferrosilicon manufacturers will show an increasing trend.
Special steel: last week, the market price of die steel rose, and businesses opened one after another. In terms of resources, market arrival continued to increase, inventory growth further expanded, and overall resources increased slightly compared with that before the festival.
Stainless steel: affected by the low inventory of pure nickel and the concern of international supply shortage last week, Shanghai nickel showed a volatile upward trend as a whole, with the highest of 178520 yuan / ton in the week. According to the official website of Mysteel, the price is expected to be strong next week.
Risk tip: real estate decline; The recovery of manufacturing industry was less than expected.
