Recent market review
From January 24, 2022 to February 23, 2022, CSI 300 fell by 3.27%, the machinery sector fell by 1.60%, outperforming the market by 1.67 percentage points, ranking 23rd among all the primary industries of Shenwan, and 19 sub industries fell by 10 and rose by 9. Among them, the sub industries with better performance were abrasive tools and abrasives, agricultural machinery and printing and packaging machinery, up 10.49% and 4.89% respectively 4.84%。 As of February 23, 2022, the industry’s TTM P / E ratio is 24 times (overall method, excluding negative values), and the valuation premium rate relative to CSI 300 is 96%.
Review of the overall situation of the machinery industry
In terms of construction machinery, about 15600 excavators were sold in January, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%, of which 8282 were sold in China, a year-on-year decrease of 48.3%; 7325 units were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 105%. In January, 7598 loaders of various types were sold, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%. In the Chinese market, 4117 loaders of various types were sold, with a year-on-year decrease of 38%; 3481 sets were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 52.2%. In terms of forklift sales, the sales of forklifts in the whole industry in December was about 81100, with a year-on-year increase of 8.64%. From the starting hours of excavators, the starting hours of Komatsu in January were greatly disturbed by the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year decrease of 35% to 71.3 hours. In other major regions of the world, except for Japan, which increased slightly by 0.6 percentage points, the number of startup hours in Japan was 59.6 hours; The number of startup hours in Europe was 65.7 hours, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%; Indonesia started up 194.4 hours, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%; North America increased by 8.8% year-on-year to 66.4 hours.
In terms of industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in manufacturing industry in December was 13.5%. Among the main downstream application scenarios, the fixed asset investment in automobile industry fell by 3.7% in December, and the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment in 3C industry maintained a high level of 22.3%. Benefiting from the continuous improvement of fixed asset investment in downstream manufacturing industry, industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output increased by 15.1% year-on-year in December to 35200 units. In the future, with the gradual dissipation of the impact of the epidemic and the continuous recovery of manufacturing investment, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) production and marketing data will continue to improve, and the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industrial chain will usher in a golden period of domestic substitution.
Investment strategy
In terms of construction machinery, according to the data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the sales volume of excavators in January was 15600, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%, the decline was narrowed, and the export data showed outstanding performance, a year-on-year increase of 105%. In terms of policies, the policy of 2022 has repeatedly emphasized steady growth, and the Ministry of Finance issued a new special debt of 1.46 trillion yuan in advance. From the perspective of investment direction, the new special debt is mainly invested in municipal and industrial park infrastructure, affordable housing projects and social undertakings. We believe that due to the impact of last year’s high base, the growth rate of Q1 industry is under pressure, but under the main line of steady growth, the improvement trend of industry demand is obvious. The continuous commencement of major projects around the country will drive the marginal improvement of construction machinery demand. It is expected that the demand of construction machinery industry is expected to improve in March after the Spring Festival in January and February and the influence of seasonal factors. In 2022, the construction machinery market will show a trend of low before high. Under this expectation, we suggest to focus on the repair opportunities of industry leaders under the steady growth policy in the short term, such as construction machinery leaders Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) (600031), Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) (600984), and core parts manufacturers Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) (601100).
In terms of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , the Ministry of industry and information technology led the introduction of two favorable plans, which clearly put forward the goal of an average annual growth of 20% in industry revenue and doubling the Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) density of manufacturing industry by 2025. Last year, the performance of Q3 Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) enterprises was not optimistic. Some representative companies in China experienced a sharp rise in revenue but a sharp decline in profits. The rise in cost and price is one factor, and the more fundamental reason is that they are limited by technical barriers. Most of China’s Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) enterprises are concentrated in the field of medium and low-end products, and their bargaining power is not strong. The introduction of the two plans will accelerate the process of China’s Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry moving towards high-end. In addition, with the gradual decline of China’s demographic dividend and the continuous decline of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) prices, the price scissors difference between the two has been significantly reduced, and machine replacement will become an important trend of manufacturing transformation in the future. In this process, it is suggested to pay attention to domestic industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leaders Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) (300607), Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) (002747) and reducer leaders Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) (688017).
Risk warning: the risk of global spread of the epidemic; The macroeconomic growth rate is lower than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; Global trade friction risk.
