Changes in the situation in Russia and Ukraine affected overseas electrolytic aluminum production, and the price of rare earth oxides rose slightly
Copper: the situation in Russia and Ukraine gave birth to risk aversion, the strength of the US dollar suppressed copper, China was relatively optimistic about steady growth and new construction, and copper prices were still supported. Follow Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) . As of February 23, Shanghai copper reported 71300 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of – 0.29%; The inventory received 700.99 million tons, with a weekly change of – 1.36%.
Aluminum: the situation in Russia and Ukraine has suddenly changed, and the continuous rise of overseas energy costs has led to a large number of enterprises to reduce production. China has not recovered from the epidemic in Baise, Guangxi, and the aluminum price is relatively strong. The rise in aluminum prices this week led to a rebound in the profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry. Follow Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) . As of February 23, Shanghai aluminum reported 22805 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 0.84%; The inventory received 169028 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of – 12.71%.
Rare earth permanent magnet: the price of rare earth oxide rose slightly this week. As of February 23, praseodymium oxide (lowest price) closed at 1080000 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 0.84%; Neodymium oxide (lowest price) closed at 1205000, with a weekly change of 1.26%; Praseodymium neodymium oxide (lowest price) closed at 1095000 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 1.39%; Dysprosium oxide (lowest price) closed at 3125 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 0.16%; Terbium oxide (lowest price) closed at 15210 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 1.60%. The rare earth industry is in a new growth cycle, and the price is expected to continue the rise in the beginning of the year. The rare earth industry has undergone fundamental changes in terms of supply and demand. The orderly and highly centralized supply pattern in China and the stabilization of global supply have reduced the supply elasticity. It is estimated that the annual rare earth mining and smelting index in 2022 will be about 202000 tons, an increase of about 20% year-on-year. In terms of demand, under the background of global low-carbon and electrification, new energy vehicles, improved energy efficiency of industrial motors, wind power, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) have replaced consumer electronics as the main driving force of rare earth permanent magnet demand, resulting in a leap in magnitude. We expect the average annual compound growth rate to be about 26% from 2022 to 25. Follow Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) .
Risk tip: the global economic recovery is less than expected; US inflation remains high; The production and sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; The energy crisis eased more than expected; The demand for magnetic materials is less than expected; Rapid recovery of supply in Myanmar; Power rationing less than expected
