Event: the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan, which describes the requirements from eight aspects: overall requirements, technical system, industrialization steps, marketization, management system, cooperation and competition and safeguard measures.
For diversified technology development, the key energy storage device is battery: by the end of 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage projects put into operation in China was 35.6gw, including 31.8gw of pumped energy storage, accounting for 89.3%, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and 3.27gw of electrochemical energy storage, ranking the first, accounting for 9.2%, a year-on-year increase of 91.2%. At this stage, various forms of energy storage are developed side by side, including various electrochemical energy storage devices such as sodium battery, lithium electronics, lead carbon, liquid flow, hydrogen energy storage and supercapacitor. Among them, the cumulative energy storage scale of lithium ion is the largest, accounting for 88.8%.
Energy storage will be large-scale in 25 years and fully market-oriented in 30 years, with broad market space: the cost of energy storage system will reach 1500 yuan / kwh in 2021, and energy storage will begin to enter the parity stage. According to the prediction of GGII, the installed capacity of energy storage will reach 180gwh in 2025, and the CAGR will be 60% in the five years from 2020 to 2025; By 2030, the installed capacity of new energy storage is expected to reach 150gw. According to the calculation of 2H configuration time, the comprehensive market-oriented energy storage space will exceed 1.2 trillion yuan.
With the improvement of technology, the system cost is further improved, and the marketization is expected to speed up: the cost of energy storage system is continuously improved, and it has entered the economic region by 2021. The cost of power cells, system integration, BMS, PCs and other components constituting the energy storage system accounts for more than 86% of the system, showing a downward trend, and the large-scale effect is further apparent. By 2030, the performance of the energy storage system will be improved, the cost will be reduced by more than 30%, the economy of scenery distribution and storage will be further highlighted, and the full marketization of energy storage will be accelerated.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to the battery links: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) ; Inverter: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) ; System integration: Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co.Ltd(000049) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) etc.
Risk tip: the implementation of the policy is less than expected, the development of energy storage is less than expected, and the decline of system cost is less than expected.
