Core view
The market is worried that the sales volume of the new energy vehicle industry this year may not meet expectations, and Tesla has a strong sales target this year. The Federation of passenger cars predicts that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars in 2022 will be 5.5 million. With the tight supply chain, declining subsidies, macroeconomic downturn and other adverse factors of the new energy vehicle industry, plus some vehicle enterprises are forced to raise prices due to rising costs, the market is worried that the production and sales volume of the new energy vehicle industry this year will not meet expectations. Tesla products belong to medium and high-end models, and consumers’ acceptance of price increase is higher than that of medium and low-end models; As the leader of global new energy vehicle enterprises, Tesla‘s large orders with high certainty brought by its scale and performance can give priority to upstream suppliers to ensure supply. According to Tesla‘s general meeting of shareholders, Tesla’s global delivery will increase by more than 50% in 2022. As an industry leader, Tesla has advantages in production and marketing scale, brand awareness, supply chain system, etc. it is expected that its production and sales level will not be affected by the shortage of battery supply and price increase.
Tesla’s vehicle expansion and self-developed battery capacity provide guarantee for its production and sales target. Tesla Berlin and Texas plants are expected to be officially put into operation in 2022, adding the production capacity contributed by the original American Fremont special agent factory and the capacity improvement after the expansion of Shanghai Super factory. After the production capacity of each plant reaches the maximum, it will ensure the realization of production and sales. At present, Tesla has four battery factories. The largest battery factory is gigafactory 1 in Huada, USA, China, which mainly produces ternary lithium batteries, 2170 batteries and 4680 batteries. In addition, Tesla has invested in building three battery factories, and the 4680 battery test plant in California has made substantial progress, The production and sales of 4680 battery plants in Germany will continue to be guaranteed, and the battery production and self-produced power plants in Austin will also continue to be built in the United States.
Comparative analysis of Tesla’s market share and profitability. From 2016 to 2021, Tesla’s annual sales market share increased from 8.1% to 14.4%, ranking first in the world. In 2019, after excluding carbon credits, the gross profit margin of automobile business was 18.9%; In 2021, after excluding the carbon integral income, the gross profit margin of automobile business was 27.0%, and the gross profit margins of Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal 2021q1-q3 were 20.6%, 19.5% and 12.9% respectively. Tesla’s gross profit margin of 2021q1-q3 was 26.0% after excluding the carbon integral income. After excluding the carbon score income factor, the single vehicle profit of 25300 yuan / vehicle and 36000 yuan / vehicle in the second and third quarters of 21 years respectively, and 41500 yuan / vehicle in the fourth quarter. Weixiaoli’s q1-q3 sales volume increased quarter by quarter in 2021, but Weilai and Xiaopeng’s bicycle profit did not improve significantly. The ideal bicycle loss narrowed from -28600 yuan / vehicle in the first quarter to -0900 yuan / vehicle in the third quarter, and the profitability still lags far behind Tesla.
Investment proposal and investment object
With the expansion of Tesla’s production capacity and the improvement of the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle industry, its sales volume target will grow strongly in 2022, and the growth of its sales volume scale will bring revenue growth elasticity to the supporting companies of the industrial chain. It is suggested to pay attention to: Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Shanghai Daimay Automotive Interior Co.Ltd(603730) .
Risk tips
Tesla’s sales volume did not meet expectations, Tesla’s production capacity process did not meet expectations, the impact of chip supply shortage, and the impact of intensified competition in the new energy vehicle industry.
