In mid February, the cargo throughput of major coastal ports was + 5.7% year-on-year, of which the foreign trade throughput was - 4.3% year-on-year. The container throughput of the eight hub ports was + 5.8% year-on-year, of which the foreign trade / domestic trade container throughput was - 3.1% and + 46.5% year-on-year. After the Spring Festival holiday, port production gradually resumed.
Key investment points
Port data in mid February
(1) overall: cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports: year-on-year + 5.7%, of which foreign trade throughput was - 4.3% year-on-year
In mid February, the cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports increased by 5.7% year-on-year; Among them, the foreign trade throughput was - 4.3% year-on-year, an increase of 3.3pct compared with - 7.6% year-on-year in early February, and the year-on-year decline narrowed, which was caused by the gradual recovery of port production during the Spring Festival holiday.
(2) container: the container throughput of the eight hub ports increased by + 5.8% year-on-year
In mid February, the container throughput of the eight hub ports was + 5.8% year-on-year (the previous value was - 10.6%). Among them, the throughput of foreign trade containers was - 3.1% (the former value was - 8.3%) year-on-year, and the throughput of domestic trade containers was + 46.5% (the former value was - 20.2%) year-on-year.
(3) throughput of key goods and port inventory
Crude oil: in terms of throughput, year-on-year - 22.4% (previous value - 11.6%); In terms of port deposits, year-on-year - 0.1% (previous value + 2.3%). Iron ore: in terms of throughput, year-on-year + 0.8% (previous value + 0.8%); In terms of port storage, from the perspective of 45 ports nationwide, the port storage of iron ore on February 18 was 160 million tons, an increase of 26.8% over the same period last year. Coal: in terms of throughput, Qinhuangdao Port + Shenhua Huanghua Port + 1.7% year-on-year (former value - 12.8%); In terms of port deposit, according to the caliber of Qinhuangdao Port + Shenhua Huanghua, the year-on-year rate was - 0.5% (the previous value was - 7.7%).
Continue to pay attention to the adjustment of container rates in coastal ports
Event: on December 1 last year, Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) announced that the shipping company would increase the loading and unloading charges of 20 foot and 40 foot empty and heavy containers by about 10% from January 1, 2022; On December 3 last year, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) announced that the transfer fee of 20 foot heavy containers for domestic trade was increased by about 50%; On December 8 last year, Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) announced that since January 1, 2022, the lump sum fee for port operation of ordinary foreign trade heavy container barge gathering mode will be increased by about 8%, and the fee for ordinary foreign trade heavy container trailer gathering mode and empty container will be increased by about 19%; On February 9, Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) qqct announced that the handling charges of 40 foot and 20 foot heavy containers for foreign trade were increased by about 14% and 12% respectively.
Sensitivity measurement: price adjustment is expected to bring revenue increment, but there is no marginal cost. We assume that the price of comprehensive container business in each port will increase by 10%. It is estimated that:
1) Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) : in 2020, the container related revenue was 13.345 billion yuan, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.307 billion yuan. If the comprehensive price increased by 10%, the static profit elasticity was about 12%;
2) Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) in 2020, the revenue related to containers was 5.554 billion yuan, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.431 billion yuan. If the comprehensive price increased by 10%, the static profit elasticity was about 12.1%;
3) Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) in 2020, the revenue of qqct (51%) in charge of container business was 3.874 billion yuan, and the total net profit of Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) was 3.842 billion yuan. If the container price increased by 10%, the static profit elasticity was about 4%. Tips on actual rates: Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) , Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) , Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) , Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) qqct's price adjustment is the adjustment of the published price. However, it should be noted that there are differences between the published rate and the actual agreed rate signed with the shipping company, which does not rule out adopting different price strategies for customers of different shipping companies.
Latest monthly port data
(1) container: in January, the container throughput of the eight hub ports increased by + 2.5% year-on-year
Among them, the throughput of foreign trade containers increased by + 4.1% (previous value + 1.1%) year-on-year, with an increase of 3.0%.
(2) throughput of key goods
Crude oil: in terms of throughput, January was + 1.0% (previous value + 30.2%); Iron ore: in terms of throughput, January was + 10.6% (previous value + 17.1%); Coal: in terms of throughput, January was + 4.9% (previous value + 12.6%) (Port Association focuses on monitoring port caliber).
(3) key coastal ports
In January, the cargo throughput of major coastal ports in Jiangsu Province increased rapidly, Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) cargo throughput increased by + 16.7% year-on-year in the same month. The year-on-year growth rates of Yingkou port and Beibu Gulf Port Co.Ltd(000582) were 18.6% and 11.4% respectively.
In January, the cargo throughput in Jiangsu increased year-on-year, Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) with a growth rate of 7.6%. The throughput of Qinhuangdao port increased significantly year-on-year in January, with a growth rate of 108.3% in that month.
Key ports: Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) (large city caliber) achieved a cargo throughput of 55 million tons. Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) the cumulative foreign trade cargo throughput and container throughput were + 5.4% and + 6.1% respectively year-on-year.
Latest shipping rate index
Baltic dry bulk index (BDI): on February 23, the BDI index was 2244 points, an increase of 14.0% over February 17 and a year-on-year increase of 31.3%.
Crude oil transportation index (BDTI): on February 23, the BDTI index was 725 points, an increase of 4.9% over February 17 and a year-on-year increase of 11.4%.
Shanghai export container freight index (SCFI): on February 18, the SCFI index was 4946 points, down 0.70% from February 11 and up 75.0% from a year ago.
China's export container freight index (CCFI): on February 18, the CCFI index was 3500 points, a decrease of 2.44% compared with February 11 and a significant year-on-year increase of 69.0%.
Investment advice
RCEP has officially come into force and is expected to catalyze the leading throughput of coastal hub ports in the medium and long term. The regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement entered into force on 1 January 2022. With the formal entry into force of RCEP, Member States will immediately implement zero tariffs on a large number of products. In the future, 90% of products will enjoy zero tariffs in about 10 years. According to the prediction of surging news, by 2030, RCEP is expected to drive the net increase of exports of Member States by US $519 billion, and the growth of medium and long-term foreign trade volume will catalyze the leading throughput of coastal hub ports.
Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) : the logic of increasing quantity and stabilizing price is verified step by step. Benefiting from the expansion of routes, the company has driven the growth of container business and the release of new liquid bulk cargo capacity in Dongjiakou port area, which has driven the growth of liquid bulk cargo throughput, Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) (large market caliber) completed 630 million tons of cargo throughput in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 4.3%, and 23.71 million TEU of container throughput, a year-on-year increase of + 7.8%; In terms of rates, on January 28, 51% of the equity of Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) group was transferred to Shandong Port Group free of charge to complete the industrial and commercial change registration, and the actual controller of the corresponding Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) shares became Shandong SASAC, which further promoted the improvement of the regional port pattern in Shandong Province. It is expected that the rate side will continue to improve. In addition, on February 9, Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) qqct announced that the handling fees of 40 foot and 20 foot heavy containers for foreign trade will be increased by about 14% respectively 12%。
Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) : underestimate the leading value, benefit from the regional advantages, and continue to be optimistic about the growth of the company's main port industry. In 2021, the company's container throughput increased by + 8.1% year-on-year to 47.033 million TEU, and the cargo throughput increased by + 5.7% year-on-year to 539 million tons. On January 7, the company held a 2022 port and shipping business consultation conference to discuss port and shipping cooperation with major domestic and foreign trade shipping companies, and reached a consensus on consolidating the original cooperation and jointly developing new mechanisms. In addition, with the help of Haifa new port opened for operation, the company's home port is expected to further strengthen business ties with ports on the "maritime Silk Road" in the future and continue to consolidate the company's position as an international shipping hub port.
Risk warning: deterioration of Global trade; The duration of the global epidemic exceeded expectations; The port policy was less than expected.
