In January 2022, the wholesale volume of domestic Tesla was nearly 60000. The wholesale volume of domestic Tesla in January was 59845, up 286.5% year-on-year and down 15.5% month on month. The wholesale volume of domestic Tesla has been stable at more than 50000 for five consecutive months. The sales volume of 19346 vehicles in the month was + 24.9% year-on-year and – 72.6% month on month; The export volume was 40499 vehicles, a month on month increase of + 16430.2%. The change direction of sales volume and export volume in January is significantly different from that in the previous month, which is mainly due to the fact that the Shanghai factory undertakes the task of supplying European and Asia Pacific markets. Therefore, Tesla’s vehicles produced in China are mainly used for export in the first half of each quarter and mainly used for domestic sales in the last month.
The monthly wholesale volume ratio of domestic modely and Model3 continued to fluctuate and improve. In January 2022, the wholesale volume of domestic model 3 was 26548, a year-on-year increase of + 91.8%; The wholesale volume of domestic modely was 33297, with a year-on-year increase of 1929.06%. The monthly wholesale volume ratio of domestic modely and Model3 has continued to fluctuate since January 2021, which was 1.25 in that month, significantly changing from 0.12 in the same period last year, which reflects the strong demand for modely models in the terminal market. In 2022, Tesla Shanghai plant will usher in the expansion of production, and the sales volume of modely will be further improved with the increase of production capacity. We expect the monthly wholesale volume ratio of modely and Model3 to continue to increase.
In January, domestic Tesla exports accounted for 67.7%, and Model3 continued to contribute to the main export volume. In January 2022, domestic Tesla exported 40499 vehicles, including 23560 model 3 vehicles, which will continue to be the main export model; The export volume of model y is 16939, which is basically the same as the domestic sales volume. According to the statistics of monthly export volume, in the quarterly periodic change of Tesla’s export volume, the export proportion of model 3 ranges from 0-100% and the quarterly peak is about 90%; The export proportion of modely ranges from 0-50%, with a quarterly peak of about 50%; The total export of Model3 & Y accounts for 0-75% and the quarterly peak is about 70%. Compared with the peak monthly export proportion in the last two quarters (73.9% in Q3 in 2021 and 74.8% in Q4 in 2021), the export proportion in January 2022 was 67.7%, which decreased to a certain extent, which is consistent with the situation of model 3, which is the main contribution of export.
In January, the sales volume of model y was 16358, which was still the main domestic model. While undertaking the export task, the domestic sales performance of domestic Tesla is also excellent. In January 2022, the monthly sales volume of Model3 / modely reached 2988 / 16358 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 896.83%. According to the statistics of the passenger Association, modely continued to rank among the top five in China’s high-end SUV sales ranking in January 2022. We believe that as a new model that has just entered the Chinese market for one year, there is still much room for improvement in the demand of modely in China, and its sales volume will show greater potential in 2022.
Industry rating and investment strategy: in 2021, Shanghai factory will be opened to more domestic suppliers, and all links of the supply system will be fully introduced into corner B. Tesla’s sales volume increased rapidly, and Tesla’s business income of the original a-corner supplier still increased significantly α， The performance of new suppliers in corner B is flexible. As the core supplier of Tesla industrial chain, ASP continues to grow. By enabling domestic suppliers with highly integrated solutions, Tesla continues to expand categories and enhance system integration capabilities, thus promoting the value of supporting single vehicles, which is just the opposite of the traditional OEM supply system. This trend will also be reflected in the reform of the supply system of new forces. Maintain the “recommended” rating of the automotive industry.
Key recommended stocks: Tesla manufacturing Revolution: 4680ctc + integrated die casting, which will promote the Tesla wave in the next stage. We expect that Tesla will appear in batches in 2022: Tesla will become the largest customer, and new forces will enter the domestic suppliers of Tesla industrial chain of the top five customers. Recommend Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , and pay attention to Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) .
Risk tip: Tesla Berlin plant and Texas plant are not progressing as expected; Tesla’s Shanghai plant expanded less than expected; The recovery of automobile chip shortage is less than expected; Tesla’s global sales fell short of expectations; Focus on the company’s performance less than expected.
