In January, the CSI 300 index fell by 7.6%, and the Shenwan automobile index fell by 11.6%. The short-term performance was weaker than the market. In January, automobile sales were 2.531 million, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9% and a month on month decrease of 9.2%; Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 2.186 million, and the chip supply eased, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 6.7% and a month on month decrease of 9.7%; The sales of 344000 commercial vehicles decreased by 25.0% year-on-year and 5.5% month on month. Trucks and buses decreased year-on-year, and heavy trucks decreased significantly. It is expected that it is mainly due to the demand overdraft caused by the implementation of national six year plan. In January, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 431000, with a year-on-year increase of 135.8%, continuing the trend of rapid development last year, and the penetration rate was as high as 17%. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the industrial chain.
Main points
In January, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars achieved positive growth year-on-year. According to the data of the passenger Federation, in January, the wholesale sales volume of narrow passenger cars was 2.172 million, up 6.8% year-on-year and down 8.2% month on month. The retail sales volume reached 2.092 million, down 4.4% year-on-year and 0.6% month on month. The demand for passenger cars is still strong, and the overall trend of retail is good; The chip has eased in the short term, and the wholesale sales volume has increased year-on-year. However, the combination of chip shortage and repeated outbreaks in China is still an important restrictive factor for production and sales. The subsequent gradual mitigation is expected to promote the growth of production and sales. It is suggested to make a positive layout. In January, the sales volume of luxury brand passenger cars in China was 284000, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% and a month on month increase of 19.0%. The demand for high-end replacement brought by consumption upgrading is still strong. Mainstream joint venture brands decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, which is expected to be related to the relatively large impact of chip shortage and the decline of brand attraction. Independent brands increased by 9.8% year-on-year. Independent head enterprises have strong industrial chain toughness and effectively resolve the pressure of chip shortage. In addition, new energy sales have performed well. Car companies such as Byd Company Limited(002594) and Chang’an have performed relatively well, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention.
In January, the production and sales of commercial vehicles continued to be under pressure in the short term. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales of commercial vehicles in January was 344000, a year-on-year decrease of 25%. Among them, 314000 trucks were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 25.8%; Affected by the full implementation of national VI emission in July 2021, some demands are overdrawn in advance, so the sales volume is under pressure in the short term. In the long run, the treatment of “large ton and small standard” will reduce the single vehicle capacity of the original light truck models exceeding the standard, which is expected to increase the sales of compliant light trucks and medium trucks. The sales of 30000 passenger cars decreased by 15.8% year-on-year, that of large passenger cars increased by 10.3% year-on-year, and that of medium passenger and light passenger cars decreased by 16.1% and 17.8% year-on-year respectively. With the improvement of China’s epidemic situation and economic recovery, it is expected that the subsequent sales of large and medium-sized buses are expected to recover gradually.
In January, the sales volume of new energy vehicles doubled year-on-year. In January, 431000 new energy vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 135.8%, continuing the trend of rapid development last year. The sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 412000, with a year-on-year increase of 141.4% and a penetration rate of 18.8%; Among them, Byd Company Limited(002594) Han / Qin / song / dolphin, Wuling Hongguang mini, Chery QQ ice cream / EQ and other models are popular, which makes Byd Company Limited(002594) , SAIC GM Wuling, Chery and other models perform well, and relevant auto enterprises and industrial chains are expected to benefit. The sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles was 12000, with a year-on-year increase of 66.6%; The sales of 2622 new energy buses above 7 meters, with a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, of which Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) , Fukuda OUHUI and CRRC electric sales ranked in the top three. The follow-up of new energy vehicles is expected to continue high growth. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in relevant industrial chains.
From January to December, the revenue and profit of the automobile industry increased slightly. According to the data of China Automobile Association, from January to December 2021, the key enterprise groups of automobile industry realized an operating revenue of 4090.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%; The total profit was 294.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. Looking forward to 2022, with the gradual recovery of the auto market, the operating revenue and total profit are expected to maintain growth.
Investment advice
Complete vehicle: the sales volume of passenger cars has picked up, but the differentiation of car enterprises has intensified. It is recommended to Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , and pay attention to Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) . Commercial vehicle heavy truck and light truck are expected to maintain a high boom, paying attention to Beiqi Foton Motor Co.Ltd(600166) .
Parts and components: with the recovery of automobile sales, the performance is expected to recover and form a double-click with the valuation. It is recommended to lay out individual stocks for product upgrading, customer expansion and undervalued repair, recommend Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , and pay attention to Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , Weifu High-Technology Group Co.Ltd(000581) .
New energy: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to explode in 2022, with strong certainty of subsequent high growth. Recommend China’s leading Byd Company Limited(002594) , as well as Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) made by Tesla and Volkswagen MEB, and pay attention to Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , etc.
Smart Internet connection: ADAS and smart cockpit have penetrated rapidly, and Huawei Xiaomi and other industries have accelerated their development. Recommend Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , and pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) .
Risk tips
1) the automobile sales volume is lower than expected; 2) Shortage and price rise of raw materials; 3) The price of products has been greatly reduced.
