\u3000\u3000 Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) (688185)
Key investment points
Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) : innovative vaccine pioneer from 1 to n
We believe that among Chinese vaccine listed companies, Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) is characterized by ① the founder and core management team have R & D experience of well-known overseas vaccine companies; ② The pipeline layout of “me better” and potential “first in class” vaccines under research is rich and the clinical promotion is relatively fast; ③ Thanks to the large-scale covid-19 vaccine, the volume of revenue, net profit margin and capital expenditure (reflecting the company’s capacity preparation and new product launch expectation) increased rapidly in 2021, and quickly entered the first tier of vaccine revenue in China.
In view of the market concerns about the company’s covid-19 vaccine going to sea, commercial promotion and other issues, our view is: ① covid-19 vaccine going to sea may be more elastic than expected: covid-19 mutant strains are repeated, resulting in the demand for enhanced vaccination + there is still great room to improve the vaccination rate in low-income countries around the world (as of January 2022, only 9.5% of residents in low-income countries in the world will receive at least one vaccination), We expect that there is still room for improvement in the export of covid-19 vaccine in China from 2022 to 2023, and adenovirus vector vaccine has certain advantages (see the following analysis for details).
② establishment of commercial team: covid-19 vaccine sales have greatly accelerated the establishment of the company’s Chinese sales and international registration R & D system. With the continuous listing of mcv2 and MCV4, we are optimistic about the marginal improvement space of the company’s sales economies of scale and management efficiency.
③ advantages of technology platform in the medium and long term: we believe that the company has unique vaccine carrier protein and coupling technology, and the adenovirus carrier platform has scalability and comparative advantages, laying the foundation for the prospective project establishment of innovative vaccine pipeline and the efficiency of clinical promotion.
From 0 to 1: innovate technology platform and build competitive advantage. We believe that the accumulation of vaccine companies in the fields of protein structure design, new technical route and efficient preparation process directly affects the project approval of new varieties, clinical promotion efficiency and medium and long-term development. From the medium-term perspective, the company’s competitiveness:
① the technical advantages of carrier protein and coupling are the basis for the company to launch a better vaccine pipeline, which is embodied in the design and application of hin47 hid, crm197a-hin47 and other fusion proteins, and the application of knockout or addition of some gene construction engineering strains in DTCP, PBPV and other vaccines.
② adenovirus vector route: platform technology from gene editing to large-scale production, with stronger mucosal immune effect and application scalability. The company has developed and produced Know-how in Ebola vaccines, COVID-19 vaccines and Ad5Ag85A (new TB vaccines). It is concerned about the progress of clinical and application of inhaled COVID-19 vaccine outside China, and the application and value of adenovirus vector vaccine in the development of innovative vaccines in the field of respiratory diseases.
From 1 to N: commercialization + internationalization layout, laying the foundation for growth
We put more emphasis on the marginal change of the company’s commercialization ability under the background of the continuous listing of large single products. Specifically:
① focus on Pfizer’s scale of promotion and business efficiency;
② international layout: R & D cooperation internationalization + Clinical & Registration internationalization, accumulate experience and ability.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect the company’s EPS to be 7.65, 12.17 and 17.46 yuan / share from 2021 to 2023 respectively. The closing price on February 23, 2022 corresponds to 34 times PE in 2021 and 21 times PE in 2022. We are optimistic about the company’s technical advantages in the field of protein structure design and adenovirus vector platform. At the same time, we are optimistic about the company’s rapid promotion of sales team construction and international R & D cooperation with the help of covid-19 vaccine commercialization opportunities; With the continuous listing of mcv2, MCV4 and other products and the clinical promotion of innovative vaccines such as pcv13i and PBPV, the company’s vaccine product echelon is expected to continue to be enriched. Combined with the company’s product pipeline and medium – and long-term competitiveness, it will be covered for the first time and rated as “overweight”.
Catalyst
Covid-19 vaccine international sales exceeded expectations, MCV4 sales growth exceeded expectations, new technology platform cooperation or layout, etc.
Risk tips
The risk of delayed clinical delivery failure of vaccine, the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic, the risk of changes in China’s vaccine procurement policy, and the risk of lower than expected capacity release.
