\u3000\u3000 Vt Industrial Technology Co.Ltd(300707) (300707)
Key investment points
Event:
According to the performance express, the company is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 728 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 31%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 51 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61%; Among them, the net profit deducted from non parent company was 48 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 68%; The weighted average return on net assets was 6.89%, an increase of 2.09pct over 2020.
The stamping parts business of new energy vehicles has increased significantly, the profit is better, and the performance of capacity expansion is expected to speed up
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 25 million yuan, which was above the median value of the previous performance forecast, in line with market expectations. Benefiting from the improvement of the prosperity of stamping parts business of new energy vehicles, the stable income of export stamping die business, continuous cost reduction and efficiency increase, and strengthening the active management of accounts receivable and foreign exchange, the net interest rate of the company in the fourth quarter of 2021 reached 8.8%, basically returning to the level before the epidemic in 2019. According to the previous announcement, the company plans to build a new production capacity of core parts of new energy vehicles in Qingcun Town, Fengxian, Shanghai (located in the new area of Lingang Free Trade Zone), so as to provide a new growth fulcrum for the company's future performance.
The profit of traditional main business is expected to reverse; Stamping parts / battery box / lithium battery equipment to build long-term growth power
1. Stamping parts: the compound growth rate of income in the next three years is nearly 100%, and there is a broad space in the long term. 1) The sales volume of important stamping parts customers increased rapidly; 2) The supporting value of single vehicle has the potential to double; 3) With the increase of welding proportion of stamping parts, there is room for improvement of profitability; 4) Strengthen the sales team of stamping parts and continuously develop new customers.
2. Power battery box: it is expected to be large in the second half of 2022, and the subsequent new fixed points can be expected. 1) The project fixed point of VF battery box assembly of a vehicle model has been obtained; 2) The market space is vast, and the market scale of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery box is expected to be 30-40 billion yuan in 2025; 3) Actively explore new customers of power battery and vehicle factory.
3. Lithium battery equipment: Ningbo Jiuju (29% of which is held by Wuxi Weitang Industrial Investment Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the listed company) is actively developing some new energy equipment.
4. Traditional stamping dies: basically exported to famous global auto parts manufacturers, with a compound growth rate of more than 10% in the next three years. 1) Molds are related to the number of models, and the number of new energy models has increased significantly in recent years; 2) Issue convertible bonds to realize the full category coverage of molds; 3) The sharp rise of freight and the impact of exchange rate appreciation are great.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 0.5/1.1/160 billion respectively, with a compound growth rate of 72% in three years; The corresponding PE from 2021 to 2023 is 54 / 26 / 17 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips:
The production expansion progress of stamping parts is less than expected, the competition pattern becomes worse and the risk of technical iteration; The newly signed order of battery box is less than expected; The research and development progress of new energy equipment is less than expected.
