\u3000\u3000 Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) (688305)
The company disclosed the 2021 performance express, which realized a revenue of 254 million yuan (+ 27.99%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 73 million yuan (+ 106.81%) in 2021; It is calculated that the 2021q4 company achieved a revenue of 93 million yuan (+ 18.76%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 26 million yuan (+ 19.39%).
The performance is in line with expectations, and the domestic substitution is in progress. In 2021, the company achieved steady growth, met the urgent needs of aviation, aerospace, military and other industries for five axis linkage CNC machine tools, realized batch “import substitution”, and was widely used in automobile, mechanical equipment, mold, cutting tool, energy, electronics, schools and other industries, realizing the balanced growth of the company’s products in various military and civilian fields.
Technology benchmarking overseas leaders to start a large cycle of domestic substitution. The company achieved technological breakthroughs by participating in the “04 special project”, in which it undertook 29 (leading 3 projects + participating in 26 projects). At present, its core advantages are reflected in the fact that CNC system, servo drive system and CNC machine tool technology can be benchmarked with overseas giants, and the self-made rate of core components is high. For example, kmc800u five axis linkage vertical machining center products of the company have entered the “supply catalogue of domestic high-grade CNC machine tools in the military industry”. Since January 2018, import substitution has been realized in batches. In 2018, the sales volume of five axis machine tools made in China was nearly 600, and the market share of the company was only 7.2%; In 2018, the output value of five axis CNC machine tools made in China was about 920 million yuan. In addition, the cost of imported machine tools in China in recent years was about US $3 billion, so the company has a large alternative space in the future.
The self-determination rate of core equipment is high and has been recognized by aviation customers. The company has achieved breakthroughs in high-end CNC system technology, general and special five axis CNC machine tool technology, high-performance servo drive technology, direct drive functional component technology, high-performance sensing technology, high-performance motor technology and other core technologies, ensuring the company’s independent mass production of core components of high-end CNC machine tools, While ensuring autonomy and controllability, we are fully capable of defining products according to customer needs. Aerospace (including aerospace development group, aerospace science and industry, Aecc Aero Science And Technology Co.Ltd(600391) ) is an important customer of the company. From 2018 to 2020, the downstream of aerospace contributed 33.6%, 52.4% and 47.1% of the company’s revenue. In addition, the company’s products are sold in the fields of automobile, mechanical equipment, energy, ice ship nuclear power, cutting tools, molds, schools and so on.
Investment suggestion: the company issued a performance express and adjusted the profit forecast slightly. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 73 (disclosed) / 92 / 150 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 121x / 96x / 59x respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1 The progress of domestic substitution is lower than the expected risk. At present, the domestic five axis belongs to the initial stage of localization, and the demand for military localization may be relatively fast, but the substitution progress of other industries is difficult to assess, which may be lower than the expected; 2. The long time of customer certification will affect the risk of short-term performance release. At present, Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) is recognized in the field of aviation engine system, but there is still the risk that the time cycle of customer certification in other fields is uncontrollable.
