\u3000\u3000 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (002557)
Event: the company disclosed the 2021 annual performance express. In 2021, the company’s operating revenue was + 13.2% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 15.5% year-on-year. 4q21 revenue + 28.3%, net profit attributable to parent + 22.0%, net profit deducted from non attributable to parent + 32.2%. The fourth quarter performance exceeded expectations.
Key points supporting rating
The Spring Festival moved forward + returned home + prices rose smoothly, and the growth rate increased in the fourth quarter. (1) In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 5.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.5%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent company was 800 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.2%. (2) In the fourth quarter alone, 4q21 achieved a revenue of 2.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 336 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.0%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent company was 310 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.2%. 4q21’s revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were the best performance in history. We judge that the reasons for the rapid growth of performance in the fourth quarter are as follows: the Spring Festival in 2022 moves forward, and part of the revenue from the annual goods Festival is recognized in the fourth quarter; In 2022, the policy of returning home was relatively loose, and the number of returning home increased significantly, which was conducive to the sales of nut gift boxes with gift attribute; The company raised the price of melon seed products in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the price increase will be transmitted smoothly and promote the revenue.
In the second half of the year, the income growth rate of sunflower seeds improved, and the income of nuts is expected to grow rapidly. (1) 1h21 sunflower seed revenue fell by 4.3% year-on-year. In the second half of the year, the company actively made adjustments. The sales volume of red bags was stable, and the new products of blue bags were in large quantity. At the same time, the high base effect was weakened. We judged that the growth rate of sunflower seed revenue in the second half of the year was significantly improved compared with that in the first half of the year. (2) In 2020, the base number of nut products was low under the influence of the epidemic, and the gift scene recovered well in 2021. The company strengthened the construction of nut gift boxes and group purchase channels, adding the influence of the move forward of the Spring Festival. We judge that the income of nut products is expected to grow rapidly in 2021.
Outlook: the growth rate is expected to decline in the first quarter, and it is expected to achieve rapid growth in 2022. (1) The Spring Festival in 2022 is relatively early, and part of the revenue of the annual goods Festival is recognized in 4q21. We judge that the revenue growth rate of 1q22 will decline month on month. (2) Combining 4q21 and 1q22, we judge that the price increase of the company is conducted smoothly and the terminal dynamic sales are in good condition, with a good growth rate compared with the same period of the previous year. (3) Looking forward to the whole year, we believe that the company will continue to improve its channels, product structure upgrading, brand communication and operation efficiency, and we are optimistic that the company will achieve rapid growth in 2022.
Valuation
According to the performance express, we adjusted the previous profit forecast and estimated that the EPS of 21-23 years would be 1.83, 2.17 and 2.56 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.5%, + 18.3% and + 17.8%, maintaining the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The promotion of new products is less than expected, the cost of raw materials fluctuates, and food safety problems.
