\u3000\u3000 Suzhou Chunqiu Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603890) (603890)
Event: the company issued a performance express. In 2021, it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 4.025 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.37%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 305 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.66%, deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent of 243 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.62%.
The improvement of customer structure helps the steady growth of the company. Although there are many negative factors in the industry, the growth rate of the company is obviously stronger than that of the industry, and the leading attribute is clear. In the past year, due to the global lack of core and the sluggish logistics clearance caused by supply chain materials, the epidemic and power restriction, the year-on-year growth rate of notebook computer shipments slowed down, but the demand remained hot, but many supply chain companies began to increase without increasing profits. The root cause lies in the rise in the price of raw materials such as upstream resin and metal, the uneven length of the supply chain, and the unilateral fluctuation of the exchange rate. These changes have brought a severe test to the management and supply capacity of supply chain companies. The performance forecasts of the other two A-share listed companies, which are also the structural parts of notebook appearance, have also been released, all of which have declined in a large proportion. Relying on its excellent mold design and manufacturing capabilities, lean cost control and internal management, Chunqiu has achieved steady growth in performance, which is inseparable from the achievements made by the company in the improvement of customer structure in the past two years: the development of traditional notebook computer dragon brand customers such as Dell and HP, and the close cooperation with Chinese ODM factories such as Huaqin, It helps the company to continuously erode and seize the share of Taiwan and Hong Kong suppliers, brings stable order increment to the company, and then realizes the smooth release of new production capacity, which is the key to the company's counter cyclical growth. The company's future share in the field of notebook computer structural parts still has room for further improvement, and the growth momentum is still sufficient.
The lightweight trend of new energy vehicles highlights the advantages of magnesium alloy, and the company's technical reserve has been approved by new energy vehicle customers. At present, due to the restriction of power battery energy density, reducing the weight outside the battery as much as possible has become one of the schemes to effectively improve the endurance mileage of new energy vehicles. Therefore, the advantages of magnesium aluminum alloy structural parts with low density, high strength and strong ability to withstand impact load have been highlighted. At the same time, driven by the trend of intelligent cockpit, large screen Multi screen has become the mainstream route of on-board display, which puts forward higher requirements for the weight, bearing capacity and stability of relevant structural parts. At present, the central control screen of Tesla Model 3 has been equipped with magnesium aluminum alloy rear shell. In the future, the application scenario of magnesium alloy is expected to extend to steering parts, jacket, roof support, steering wheel, seat frame, door frame, door latch cover, etc, This means that the rise of new forces in Chinese car making and the layout of traditional car companies in the field of intelligent cockpit are expected to help the rapid growth of vehicle magnesium aluminum alloy market. When exploring the application of magnesium alloy in the field of notebook computer appearance parts, Chunqiu has successfully broken through the technical barrier of "semi-solid injection molding", mastered the equipment use and supporting technology, and has obtained the approval of many new energy vehicle brand manufacturers at the technical level. If it can successfully obtain relevant orders from new energy vehicle customers, it will become the second growth pole of the company's performance, Open the ceiling.
Convertible bond raising will expand the production capacity of magnesium aluminum structural parts and wait for the orders of new energy vehicle customers to gradually increase. At present, the suppliers of vehicle mounted magnesium aluminum structural parts are mainly Taiwan funded, but magnesium involves safety problems in the production process. When the consumption of magnesium alloy continues to increase and the application scenario continues to expand, the new energy complete machine factory will tend to seek more new suppliers. Chunqiu has been able to meet the requirements of the complete machine factory in terms of technology, and it is necessary to cooperate with interested customers to expand production capacity in the future, The company issued a convertible bond plan at the end of last year, and plans to raise no more than 570 million yuan for the "project with an annual output of 5 million sets of automotive electronic magnesium aluminum structural parts" and current replenishment. The project is expected to be successfully put into operation in 2022. With the increase of capacity utilization of the new production line, the revenue and profit of the company's vehicle structural parts are expected to increase simultaneously.
Investment rating and suggestions: maintain the buy rating. The characteristic of Chunqiu company is to do in-depth cultivation in the industry. In mature fields where others can't grow or even give up, it just relies on its own efforts and ideas to find another way to hand over excellent answers with continuous high growth for many years. At present, the company adheres to the process accumulation in the application of magnesium alloy notebook appearance parts for many years, which coincides with the rigid demand of new energy vehicle body lightweight, and the growing ceiling is further opened. We expect the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 to be 305 million yuan, 428 million yuan and 555 million yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 16.83, 11.98 and 9.24 times respectively, Maintain buy rating.
Risk tips: (1) the supply chain of notebook industry is blocked due to chip supply shortage or blocking due to the epidemic, which will affect the overall shipment; (2) The recovery of the global notebook computer industry is lower than expected. (3) The dollar continues to depreciate unilaterally; (4) The progress of promoting the lightweight trend of new energy vehicles has slowed down.
