\u3000\u3000 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) (300413)
Key investment points
Event: the company's online variety detective]7 was launched on January 28, 2022; The drama "Jiang Zhao dawn" was launched on January 27, 2022.
In terms of online entertainment, since the launch of detective 7, the number of broadcasts has ranked first in the same period. "Big detective 7" has been online since January 28, 2022. As of February 22, 2022, it has been online for 26 days, with a cumulative broadcast volume of 760 million. Since 20220128, the broadcast volume ranks first in all kinds of variety shows, with a Douban score of 8.0. Horizontally, compared with other comprehensive networks in the same period, the second broadcast volume is "our hot life" (670 million) broadcast by mango TV, and the third broadcast volume is "semi mature lovers" (540 million) broadcast by Tencent video. Vertically, compared with the fifth and sixth seasons of Ming investigation, the first day broadcast volume of "big detective 7" remains stable. At present, the first day broadcast volume of the first and second phases (the upper and lower phases together) is 150 million and 170 million, and the first two phases of the fifth and sixth seasons are 180 / 90 million and 270 / 150 million respectively; However, the first week's broadcast volume was less than that of the previous two seasons. The first week's broadcast volume of the seventh quarter was 260 / 270 million, and that of the fifth and sixth quarters was 450 / 310 million and 440 / 310 million. Considering that only mango TV members can watch the broadcast on the first day, we believe that the reason for this phenomenon is the increase in the member payment rate of mango IP fans.
In terms of TV variety, the performance of "Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) " is the same as that of kuaben. "Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) " is currently broadcast in 8 issues, with an average first day broadcast volume of 6.41 million, which is slightly lower than the average first day broadcast volume of 39 issues of fast books broadcast in 2021 (6.59 million); However, the next day's broadcast volume of "Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) " was 36.13 million and that of "happy camp" was 30.58 million, which was improved.
In terms of online dramas, mango TV's "Jiang Zhao dawn" ranks first in terms of broadcast volume. "Jiang Zhao Liming" was launched on January 27, 2022. It has been online for 27 days and played a total of 930 million. In the same period, the series only lags behind Tencent video's "city of light" (launched for 34 days and played a total of 950 million). According to the data of Yien, since February 2022, the broadcasting index of "Jiang Zhao dawn" has been 69.8, ranking first among the dramas of the same period on all platforms. Ice hockey youth broadcast by mango TV also achieved excellent results. It has been online for 24 days, with a cumulative broadcast volume of 820 million, ranking third in the same period; And the popularity of microblog is high. As of 20223, the number of microblog readings was 1.42 billion, ranking the second in the same period.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.13 yuan, 1.47 yuan and 1.70 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 31 times, 24 times and 21 times. Considering that the company has rich product lines next year, the negative impact of stable macroeconomic growth on advertising business gradually subsides, and Xiaomang e-commerce is on the right track, we maintain the investment rating of Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) "buy".
Risk warning: the risk that the product effect is not as good as expected and the risk of national policy adjustment.
