\u3000\u3000 Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) (688012)
Thanks to the substantial growth of semiconductor etching equipment revenue, the company's revenue in 2021 increased by 37% and net profit after deduction increased by 1282%, of which 4q revenue increased by 30% and net profit after deduction increased by 130%, and the performance elasticity gradually appeared.
In the long run, as a leading enterprise of semiconductor equipment in China, the company takes the lead in the technical reserve of high-end etching equipment in China, and will benefit from the promotion of domestic substitution for a long time. From the perspective of valuation, the company's PS is expected to be about 13 times in 2023. As a leading etching equipment manufacturer in China, the company enjoys a certain premium in valuation and maintains the rating of purchase.
Revenue and profit increased rapidly in 2021: the company expects the operating revenue to be 3.108 billion yuan in 2021, with yoy increasing by 36.7%; The gross profit was 1.336 billion yuan, yoy increased by 56%, and the net profit was 1.01 billion yuan, yoy increased by 105%. The net profit after deducting non profit was 320 million yuan, and yoy increased by 1282%. Accordingly, 4q21 achieved a revenue of 1.04 billion yuan, with yoy increasing by 29.9%. The net profit was 470 million yuan, with yoy increasing by 118%. The net profit after deducting non-profit was 160 million yuan, with yoy increasing by 130%. The company's performance is at the upper limit of the performance range. Benefiting from the growth of semiconductor equipment market and the improvement of the company's share, the company's etching equipment revenue in 2021 was 2 billion yuan, and yoy increased by about 55.4%. In addition, the revenue of mini ledmocvd equipment scale orders in 2020 has not been confirmed. The revenue of MOCVD equipment in 2021 was 503 million yuan, an increase of about 1.5% over 2020, but the gross profit margin of MOCVD equipment reached 33.1%, a significant increase over 18.7% in 2020, driving the company's annual gross profit margin to 44,4%, an increase of about 6.6 percentage points over the same period of last year.
Profit forecast: in 2021, the company's new orders will be 4.13 billion yuan, with yoy increasing by more than 90.5%, of which 3Q's new orders will be 1.6 billion yuan, with a significant increase year-on-year. It is expected that with the promotion of miniled equipment sales, the company's revenue and profit scale will continue to increase rapidly in the next two years. We expect the company's revenue to be 4.5 billion yuan and 6.3 billion yuan in 2022-23, yoy to increase by 46% and 39%, net profit to be 1.06 billion yuan and 1.47 billion yuan, yoy to increase by 5% and 39% respectively, EPS to be 172 yuan and 2.38 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 54 times of pe54 in 2023 and about 13 times of PS in 2023, As a leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer in China, the company enjoys a certain premium in valuation and gives a buy rating.
Risk tip: covid-19 epidemic has dragged down the growth of semiconductor equipment demand.
