Core view:
Looking back, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Machinery index rose by 300.2% this week. Machinery and equipment ranked ninth in all 28 industries. After excluding negative values, the valuation level of the machinery industry is 24.6 (overall method). The top three sectors in the machinery industry this week are wind power equipment, semiconductor equipment and photovoltaic equipment; Since the beginning of the year, the top three segments are oil and gas development equipment, instruments and meters and construction machinery.
Zhou concern: the national Standing Committee has taken many measures to support manufacturing investment and is optimistic about the upward boom of industrial machine tools
The tax reduction policy and financial support of the national standing committee are expected to promote small, medium-sized and micro enterprises to increase equipment investment and benefit the market demand of industrial machine tools. Premier Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council on February 14, listened to the report on the handling of the proposals of the national two sessions in 2021, determined to promote the steady growth of the industrial economy, and proposed (1) for the new equipment and appliances purchased by small, medium-sized and micro enterprises with a value of more than 5 million yuan this year, the depreciation of 3 years can be deducted before tax at one time, and the depreciation of 4, 5 and 10 years can be deducted by half, Extend the tax deferment policy for small, medium and micro enterprises in the manufacturing industry; (2) Guide and strengthen financial services, provide incentive financial support from the people’s Bank of China, increase inclusive small and micro loans, and promote the rapid growth of medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry; (3) We will strengthen and supplement the manufacturing chain and rebuild the industrial infrastructure, accelerate the construction of new infrastructure and the transformation of energy-saving and carbon reduction technologies in key areas, and expand effective investment. Various policies and measures will effectively solve the problems of cash flow and cost reduction of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, and expand effective investment. The implementation of the policy will drive the demand for industrial mother machine products such as machine tools and injection molding machines.
China’s high-end machine tools urgently need a breakthrough, and the industrial concentration is expected to increase. In 2021, China produced 602000 metal cutting machine tools, with a year-on-year increase of 29.2%, and 210000 metal forming machine tools, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. China’s machine tool industry is large but not strong. The core parts of machine tools such as CNC system and high-end machine tools such as five axis CNC machine tools are still heavily dependent on imports. And the industry concentration is low. As of November 2021, there are still 931 metal cutting machine tool enterprises and 544 metal forming machine tools in China, and the enterprises in the industry are generally small. With the promotion of strengthening and supplementing the manufacturing chain, the industry concentration is improved and the development trend towards high-end is clear.
The recovery of manufacturing investment is expected to drive the continuation of the boom of injection molding machines. Injection molding machine enterprises cut into the new application of large and super large die-casting machines and expand market space. In the first half of 2021, the injection molding machine industry had full orders under the manufacturing investment boom, and the supply was in short supply. In the third quarter, the boom slowed down with the decline of the manufacturing boom. Under the background that the investment boom of manufacturing industry is expected to continue, the demand boom of injection molding machine will also continue. The pattern of injection molding machine industry is relatively stable. While stabilizing the injection molding machine business, leading Haitian International and Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) are involved in large and super large die-casting machines, which are expected to open up market space under the integrated die-casting process of new energy vehicles.
Investment suggestions: continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities in the manufacturing investment chain, and industrial mother machine products continue to benefit. The recommended targets of machine tools are Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) , Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) , Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) , Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co.Ltd(000837) , Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) , Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool Co.Ltd(002559) ; The recommended targets of injection molding machine are Haitian International and Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) .
Risk warning: covid-19 pneumonia epidemic situation is repeated; The degree of policy promotion is less than expected; The growth rate of manufacturing investment was lower than expected; Intensified industry competition, etc.
