Brief review report of computer industry: what areas may the policy foothold of digital economy be

Core view

Analysis of computer industry: digital economy has become the key content of the national and local "14th five year plan". Digital economy covers a wide range. From the narrow and broad definition of new infrastructure and its correlation with financial investment, in addition to the data center and infrastructure network construction that may be driven by the "East West calculation" policy, The foothold of digital economy construction in the future may also include smart grid, information innovation, network security, industrial software, digitization and other fields.

Digital economy has become a high-frequency vocabulary of the two sessions of local governments. On January 12, the State Council issued the 14th five year plan for the development of digital economy, which defined the guiding ideology, basic principles, development objectives, key tasks and safeguard measures for promoting the healthy development of digital economy during the 14th Five Year Plan period. On January 16, the second issue of Qiushi magazine in 2022 published the important article of Xi Jinping general secretary "constantly strengthening, optimizing and expanding China's digital economy", emphasizing the development of digital economy. In addition, digital economy has become a high-frequency word in this year's provincial government reports. More than 25 provinces and cities have clearly proposed to promote the development of digital economy in the "14th five year plan" stage, and some provinces have even defined specific quantitative indicators. Digital economy will become the focus of policy in the 14th Five Year Plan period.

Digital economy is an important part of the new infrastructure, and the government's financial follow-up may continue to increase investment. "New infrastructure" is a concept relative to "old infrastructure". On March 4, 20, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee pointed out that new infrastructure includes seven areas: 5g infrastructure, UHV, intercity high-speed railway and urban rail transit, charging pile of new energy vehicles, big data center, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet. On April 20, the national development and Reform Commission further elaborated that the new infrastructure includes three aspects: first, information infrastructure. It mainly refers to the infrastructure evolved based on the new generation of information technology, such as communication network infrastructure represented by 5g, Internet of things, industrial Internet and satellite Internet, new technology infrastructure represented by artificial intelligence, cloud computing and blockchain, and computing infrastructure represented by data center and Intelligent Computing Center. Second, integrate infrastructure. It mainly refers to the integration infrastructure formed by the deep application of Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies to support the transformation and upgrading of traditional infrastructure, such as intelligent transportation infrastructure, intelligent energy infrastructure, etc. Third, innovation infrastructure. It mainly refers to the public welfare infrastructure supporting scientific research, technological development and product development, such as major scientific and technological infrastructure, science and education infrastructure, industrial technological innovation infrastructure, etc. It can be seen that the digital economy is an important part of the new infrastructure. Under the current economic environment and policy background, steady growth is the primary goal set by the provinces and the state, and the old infrastructure is the first hand to achieve steady economic growth. With the gradual implementation of investment in the old infrastructure field, the new infrastructure is expected to become another key direction of government fiscal expenditure. Therefore, we recommend that under the condition of relatively loose government finance, we should pay attention to relevant fields where government financial expenditure can occupy the leading force, such as information innovation, network security, etc. in addition, the policy encouragement directions such as smart grid, data center, industrial software and digitization should also be paid attention to.

In the context of digital economy, chip, operating system and other key areas have become key areas to make up for weaknesses: with the introduction of major strategic programs such as the 14th five year plan for the development of digital economy, the development of digital economy has become a consensus. In terms of digital industrialization, the plan focuses on complementing the shortcomings of key technologies, focusing on breaking through the key core technologies in the fields of high-end chips, operating systems, industrial software, core algorithms and frameworks, and strengthening the integrated research and development of general-purpose processors, cloud computing systems and software key technologies.

The performance of the network security sector in 22 years is expected to return to high growth. Network security expenditure is a relatively rigid expenditure of the government and large enterprises. This sector has always been the one with high growth certainty in the computer segment, and the historical compound growth rate is close to 20% (the leader is faster). From the data of 20 years, even affected by the relatively serious epidemic, the overall sector still maintained a good growth, especially in the fourth quarter, the network security hardware market increased by 27.4%. Over the past 21 years, the overall revenue of the sector has maintained growth under the background of relatively tight government finance and repeated epidemics. Looking forward to 22 years, the sector is expected to return to high-speed growth with the stability of the epidemic and the recovery of economic growth, as well as the promotion of new policies such as data security. IDC predicts that in 21-25 years, the CAGR of China's network security market will be about 17.9%, of which the security software cagr21 1%, security hardware 17.1%, security services more than 15%, security software will become the fastest-growing market.

Investment suggestions: focus on the relevant fields where government financial expenditure can dominate, such as information innovation, network security, etc. in addition, the policy encouragement directions of smart grid, data center, industrial software, digitization and so on also deserve attention.

Risk tip: the economy is down, and the government expenditure is less than expected; The strength of the policy was less than expected.

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