Carbon fiber has excellent performance and high technical barriers. Carbon fiber is a new generation of reinforcing fiber. It has high temperature resistance, friction resistance, conductivity, heat conduction and corrosion resistance. It has excellent mechanical properties and the softness and processability of textile fiber. However, there are three barriers: formula, process and engineering, and the difficulty of breakthrough is increased in turn. Small tow carbon fiber has excellent performance but high price. It is generally used in high-tech fields such as aerospace and military industry, as well as product categories with high added value in sporting goods. At the initial stage of the development of the international carbon fiber industry, it is mainly based on small tow and high-strength route. Large tow carbon fiber has more advantages in cost performance and lower preparation cost and selling price. It is mainly used in basic industries, including civil construction, transportation and new energy equipment. At present, the technology of large tow products continues to make breakthroughs, the performance of some products has been close to that of small tow carbon fiber, and the application field has been continuously expanded.
The carbon fiber industry chain is relatively complex. Acrylonitrile is the main raw material, and its dependence on imports is gradually decreasing. The complete polyacrylonitrile based carbon fiber industry chain includes seven links from crude oil exploitation and processing to the application of end industrial products. The upstream closely undertakes the petrochemical industry and takes acrylonitrile as the core raw material. China's dependence on acrylonitrile imports has remained above 28% for a long time. Since 2016, with the commissioning of the acrylonitrile plant in Sri Lanka, the dependence on imports has decreased, but there is still some room for domestic substitution. China's acrylonitrile industry continues to accelerate the pace of domestic substitution, and the production capacity supply continues to develop.
Wind power leads the way, and the downstream diversified application market is booming, helping to increase the demand for carbon fiber. The downstream wind power blade field of China's carbon fiber industry has a strong development momentum. It is estimated that the demand for carbon fiber in China's wind power field will reach 60600 tons in 2025. Carbon / carbon composites benefit from the improvement of the prosperity of the photovoltaic industry. It is expected that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China will correspond to the new demand of 7400 tons of carbon / carbon composites in 2025. Aerospace products have the highest added value, and the demand will recover steadily due to the improvement of the epidemic. With the vigorous development of sports industry, the demand for carbon fiber in the field of sports leisure will rise steadily. Lightweight car body is conducive to energy conservation and emission reduction. Lightweight battery can improve the power performance and mileage of cars. The demand for carbon fiber for cars is expected to be greatly boosted in the future. With the rapid development of hydrogen energy industry, the rapid development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is expected to greatly boost the demand for carbon fiber for hydrogen storage tanks.
China's carbon fiber industry has a high market concentration, and the phenomenon of "having capacity but no output" has gradually improved. There are more than 30 carbon fiber enterprises in China, but most of them are small-scale. The single line nominal production capacity is only 100 tons, and only the head enterprises have a high operating rate. At present, Cr5 of China's carbon fiber industry capacity is about 85%. The main market segments of head enterprises are different. Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) is mainly engaged in small tow carbon fiber, which is mainly used in high-end precision fields such as armaments and aerospace. The main product of Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) is dual-use for military and civil purposes, with a wide range of applications, while Jilin Carbon Valley is mainly engaged in raw silk. In recent years, the effective capacity of Chinese carbon fiber enterprises has expanded rapidly, the phenomenon of "having capacity but no output" in the industry has improved for a long time, and the capacity utilization rate has increased significantly.
Investment suggestion: the carbon fiber industry is booming, and the downstream wind power industry opens up the future demand space, paying attention to the carbon fiber production enterprises and the head enterprises of upstream precursor production. Key recommendations: Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) (a + H), Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) , Jilin Carbon valley. Suggested attention: Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Zhongfu Shenying.
Risk analysis: the wind abandonment rate rebounded, the transformation and promotion of wind power projects were less than expected, and the downstream demand was less than expected.
