Event overview: 1) on February 20, 2022, Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) announced the signing of major contracts for daily operation: Recently, Jilin Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) Pharmaceutical Chemistry Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, signed a new batch of supply contracts for related products with customers. The contract amount is equivalent to about 3.542 billion yuan, and the contract supply time is 2022. 2) On February 11, 2022, Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) announced the receipt of major orders: the company received a new batch of purchase orders from Pfizer Ireland pharmaceuticals under Pfizer Inc, a multinational pharmaceutical company, with a total amount of 681 million US dollars (about 4.336 billion yuan).
Pfizer’s paxlovid palovid’s original research orders continued, and Chinese cdmo enterprises signed large orders again. From the fourth quarter of 2021, Pfizer covid-19 original API and intermediate orders have been allocated to China’s cdmo enterprises. Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) has signed three major orders, all of which are Pfizer covid-19 cdmo, with a total contract amount of 9.2 billion yuan for three times. Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) has signed two major orders with a total amount of 898 million US dollars (equivalent to about 5.717 billion yuan). It is estimated that the production plan has been scheduled to 2023.
Pfizer paxlovid was approved by China’s nmpa emergency, and the original research demand gained new growth momentum. On February 12, China’s nmpa announced that it approved the listing of Pfizer’s oral covid-19 drug paxlovid with emergency conditions. Previously, paxlovid had been listed in Europe, America and other developed countries. In 2022, Pfizer plans to produce 120 million courses of paxlovid (excluding the Chinese market). Recently, China is deploying sequential immunization, and the dynamic zero epidemic prevention policy is expected to be gradually adjusted. According to the experience of overseas epidemic evolution, there will be a large demand for small molecule covid-19 oral drugs in the future. Therefore, the approval in China this time will give greater growth impetus to the demand of the original research.
MPP has a huge market space, and the authorization is about to be implemented to open the upstream intermediate industry chain. Pfizer has authorized 95 countries to produce paxlovid generic drugs through the MPP organization. Considering that the population of 95 MPP member countries has exceeded half of the global total population and the market demand is huge, its final authorization list is expected to be announced in the near future, and the upstream intermediate industry chain is about to usher in huge demand and profit elasticity. The synthetic route of paxlovid is complex, and there are certain barriers to the synthesis of core intermediates SM1 and SM2. Considering the problems of time and equipment, the short-term supply of core intermediates may be insufficient, the price of SM1 and SM2 is high, and the gross profit margin is high. In particular, SM1 synthesis involves – 120 ℃ ultra-low temperature cryogenic reaction qualification and cyanide reaction, which has high production qualification barriers, It is also an important intermediate with short-term supply bottlenecks.
Investment suggestions: 1) upstream intermediates are recommended to focus on Shandong Jincheng Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300233) , Great Chinasoft Technology Co.Ltd(002453) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Guobang Pharma Ltd(605507) with great capacity supply potential. 2) For the MPP authorized industrial chain, it is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Langhua pharmaceutical, etc. with capacity scale advantages and international supply base.
Risk tip: performance is less than expected, capacity expansion is less than expected, and new business investment risk.
