Key points:
Traditional Chinese Medicine II rose 1.99% last week, and the pharmaceutical sector oversold and rebounded
Last week, pharmaceutical biology closed at 9876.33 points, up 4.85%; Traditional Chinese Medicine II closed at 7413.95 points, up 1.99%; Chemical pharmaceutical closed at 10938.8 points, up 2.52%; Biological products closed at 10661.65 points, up 1.98%; Pharmaceutical business closed at 5844.94 points, up 0.78%; Medical devices closed at 8914.39 points, up 5.67%; Medical services closed at 9599.7 points, up 12.59%. The pharmaceutical sector oversold and rebounded.
From the performance of traditional Chinese medicine companies, the top companies are: Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) , Shanghai Kaibao Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300039) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , Kpc Pharmaceuticals Inc(600422) ; Companies with low performance include: Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , * ST Kangmei, China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Jilin Aodong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(000623) .
Traditional Chinese medicine PE (TTM) increased by 0.64x month on month, and Pb (LF) increased by 0.07x month on month
Last week, the PE of traditional Chinese medicine sector was 32.72x, the maximum value of PE in recent year was 39.7x, and the minimum value was 28.78x; At present, Pb is 2.99x, the maximum value of Pb in recent year is 3.56x, and the minimum value is 2.57x. PE of traditional Chinese medicine sector rose 0.64x month on month and Pb rose 0.07x month on month. The current valuation is at the median level in recent one year. The premium rate of traditional Chinese medicine sector relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 143.89%.
The Chinese herbal medicine market as a whole rose steadily
After the Lantern Festival, the Chinese herbal medicine market has gradually resumed trading. Since 2022, the Chinese herbal medicine market has shown an upward trend as a whole. In January, the total price index of traditional Chinese medicine was 210.57 points, and the monthly price based total index increased by 2.1% compared with the previous month, with an obvious upward trend; In February, the markets of major medicinal materials were closed one after another, resulting in a decrease in the supply side. In addition, the external market was better, so it continued to rise slightly in February. After the festival, driven by demand, the price index of traditional Chinese medicine is expected to continue to rise slightly.
The advantages of policy support and undervaluation of the traditional Chinese medicine industry are obvious. It is suggested to pay attention to the targets with excellent performance in the annual report. For the traditional Chinese medicine industry, the demand side, the rigid demand characteristics of the pharmaceutical industry and the upgrading of pharmaceutical consumption jointly support the steady growth of the demand of the traditional Chinese medicine industry. On the policy side, a series of favorable policies have been formed to promote the innovation of traditional Chinese medicine, the development of formula particles, the support of medical insurance and payment policies, and the continuous addition of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces can not exceed 25%, bringing policy dividends and new demand to the traditional Chinese Medicine industry. The unique advantage of “preventing disease” brings development opportunities to the traditional Chinese medicine industry. On the performance side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry walked out of the low point and showed a marginal improvement trend. On the valuation side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry still has relatively obvious valuation advantages. “Policy + pharmaceutical consumption upgrading + performance improvement + valuation advantage” jointly build investment opportunities for the traditional Chinese medicine industry. Cost promotion constitutes a short-term driving factor. It is suggested to pay attention to the areas of policy encouragement and policy haven. The annual report season is coming. It is suggested to pay attention to the subjects with excellent performance in the annual report.
(1) pay attention to the innovation of modern traditional Chinese medicine, and pay attention to the innovation targets of modern traditional Chinese medicine with strong R & D strength and layout of large categories (large market: cardio cerebrovascular + fast growth: pediatric medicine);
(2) pay attention to the advantages of brand traditional Chinese medicine, formula and raw materials, and jointly build a moat of brand traditional Chinese medicine;
(3) benefit from consumption upgrading, and pay attention to the subject matter of industrial chain extension and strong brand advantage.
Risk tips
(1) stricter industrial policies; (2) Industry and listed company performance fluctuation risk.
