Event overview:
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in January 2022, China sold 25500 250cc + medium and large displacement motorcycles, with a year-on-year increase of + 32.3% and a month on month increase of – 24.2%.
Analysis and judgment:
In mid January, the platoon made a good start and is expected to grow by 40% in the whole year
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in January 2022, China sold 25500 250cc + medium and large displacement motorcycles, with a year-on-year increase of + 32.3%, creating a record high sales volume in January. The sales volume in a single month is basically the same as that in 2019q1 and 2020q1, showing a strong growth momentum; The month on month ratio was – 24.2%, which is expected to be mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and most mainstream manufacturers fell to varying degrees. Breakdown of displacement: 1) 17100 vehicles were sold in the 250cc (excluding) – 400cc displacement section in January, with a year-on-year increase of + 27.6% and a month on month increase of – 21.9%; 2) The 400cc (excluding) – 750cc displacement section sold 8200 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of + 41.4% and a month on month increase of – 22.9%; 3) More than 750cc sold 10100 vehicles in January. Among them, the displacement range of 250cc (excluding) – 400cc accounts for about 67%, which confirms that the growth of the industry mainly comes from emerging entry-level consumer groups.
With the further formation of China’s motorcycle culture, the release of the upgrading and replacement demand of emerging consumer groups and the marginal improvement of the policy of banning and restricting motorcycles, we expect the growth rate of the industry to be about 40% in 2022, reaching the sales volume of 400000 + motorcycles in the whole year, and continue to recommend medium and large displacement motorcycle tracks.
Spring breeze: two rounds of overseas growth points and four rounds are affected by the Spring Festival holiday
Two wheeled motorcycles: according to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of more than 250cc in January was 3200, with a year-on-year increase of + 42.2% and a month-on-month increase of – 57.2%. As the company’s 250cc is the main sales force, if the caliber is widened to 250cc (inclusive), the sales volume in January is 500000, with a year-on-year increase of – 37.9% and a month-on-month increase of – 55.0%. The decline is expected to be mainly due to three factors: 1) the Spring Festival holiday affects the production and shipment for nearly a week; 2) On a year-on-year basis, 250sr was still in short supply in January 2021, showing no obvious seasonal characteristics; 3) On a month on month basis, in December 2021, two rounds of export shipments were concentrated, and the export volume of 250cc (inclusive) and above in a single month reached 6300 vehicles, which returned to normal in January 2022.
Two rounds of spring breeze suggestions in 2022 focus on two aspects: 1) domestic sales: the imitation race new car sr-c21 is officially named 450sr, which undertakes the upgrading and replacement needs of the original 250sr owners, and probably becomes a popular model; 2) Export: since 2021, after the four rounds of overseas market position has been gradually stabilized, the focus of the company’s overseas market has gradually tilted to two rounds. The export of 250cc (including) and above in the whole year of 2021 and January 2022 has increased by + 227% and + 59% respectively year-on-year, gradually forming two rounds of new overseas growth poles.
Four wheeled ATVs: according to the data of China Automobile Association, 14200 vehicles were exported in January, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.7% and a month on month decrease of – 27.7%. The month on month decline is expected to be mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday. Considering the low inventory of overseas terminals and the increase in market share brought by the company’s North American channel development, it is expected that the high prosperity of four rounds of exports will continue in 2022, and it is expected to achieve the export of 240000 + vehicles in the whole year. At present, the probability of tariff exemption for ATV models exported to North America, which was more concerned by the market in the early stage, is still high. If the tariff exemption is successful and considering the elasticity of freight decline, it is expected to increase profits by 300 / 400 + million yuan from 2022 to 2023 respectively.
Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) : continue to expand the product pedigree and open a new round of product cycle
According to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of more than 250cc in January was 6700 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 31.5% and a month on month increase of – 1.5%. Since the second half of 2021, the company has continued to expand its product pedigree and ushered in a new round of product cycle: 1) there are few competitive products in the same level of four cylinder imitation race 600, and its performance continues to be excellent; 2) Sai350 and sai250 have superior neutral performance and outstanding appearance in similar medium displacement models. They will be delivered in late July and mid September 2021 respectively, contributing to the core increment in 2022; 3) Chongqing motor show released new car flash 300s and Yi 550.
Key changes in recent years: 1) according to WeChat official account, Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) Shanghai officially opened in late November, and set up three major centers for new energy research and development, industrial design and international trade, to enhance the vehicle’s appearance and foresight technology research and development capabilities. 2) On December 8, the company and Harley joint venture officially completed the registration and accelerated the mass production and landing of target motorcycles (338cc displacement, 500cc displacement and motorcycles agreed in writing by both parties).
Others: Loncin Motor Co.Ltd(603766) followed by five new books, with a relatively stable share
Loncin Motor Co.Ltd(603766) : according to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of more than 250cc in January was 3200, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.6% and a month on month increase of – 10.1%. Together with Chunfeng and Qianjiang, we built the first echelon of independent motorcycle enterprises.
Five books & new books: according to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of five books above 250cc in January was 1500, with a chain comparison of – 66.6%; In January, the sales volume of more than 250cc was 18000, with a month on month increase of + 3.6%. Since the stable shipment in May 2021, Honda’s share has basically maintained a range of 10-20%. For Honda’s domestic impact, we still continue our previous judgment, that is, the short-term impact on the independent brand is relatively limited, mainly due to the differences in the price and positioning of the two, but in the medium and long term, whether the independent brand can improve the brand and quality control will become the key to competition.
Investment advice
The current development stage of medium and large displacement motorcycles is similar to the SUV sector from 2013 to 2014. The launch of new models and new brands by the supply end vehicle enterprises accelerates, provides the core driving force for the development of the industry, and the market expands rapidly. Referring to the development history of Chinese automobile and the competition pattern of overseas motorcycle market, independent brands are expected to become the biggest beneficiaries of the rise of demand for medium and large displacement motorcycles. It is recommended that [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) , Chongqing Zongshen Power Machinery Co.Ltd(001696) ] and relevant beneficiary targets [ Loncin Motor Co.Ltd(603766) ].
Risk tips
The tightening of motorcycle ban and restriction policies has led to the decline of motorcycle demand in China; The introduction of a large number of new models of foreign brands has led to intensified market competition; The second outbreak of covid-19 epidemic led to the decline of motorcycle export sales.
