Event: the industry released the production and sales data of household air conditioners online. In January 2022, 13.07 million household air conditioners were produced, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%, and 13.31 million units were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%. Among them, 5.59 million units were shipped for domestic sales, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, and 7.73 million units were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%.
Affected by the Spring Festival, the production and sales of air conditioners fell. Due to the influence of the Spring Festival, the pace of production and sales of air conditioners in January and February of each year changes relatively greatly. From the data of production and sales of air conditioners in January alone, the production and sales decline. The main reason is that some enterprises take factory holidays in late January, and the overall effective working hours are less than last year, which affects the production pace. The sluggish performance of the retail end and the relatively high inventory of the industry make enterprises more cautious and have an impact on the shipping end. According to the data of ovicloud, the online and offline sales of air conditioners decreased by 25.98% and 34.05% year-on-year in January. In terms of domestic and foreign sales, export sales performed better than domestic sales, with a slight decrease of 2.1% against the background of last year’s high base (a year-on-year increase of 56.6% in 2021). Throughout the year, due to the high price of raw materials, air-conditioning enterprises have less room for price reduction due to cost pressure, and the domestic market is expected to be flat or slightly lower than last year. Exports have experienced high growth for two consecutive years. In 2022, there are many uncertain factors, so it is relatively difficult to maintain high growth rate.
The three white blood cells showed differentiation. From the perspective of brands, the domestic sales performance of the three major white power companies is differentiated. In January, Midea sold 4.9 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%, including 2.2 million units for domestic sales, a year-on-year decrease of 2.22%, and 2.7 million units for export, a year-on-year decrease of 11.48%, mainly due to the high base in the same period last year. Gree’s total sales volume was 3.05 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, of which 1.85 million units were sold domestically, a year-on-year decrease of 15.91%, and 1.2 million units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 9.09%. We believe that the decline in Gree’s domestic sales is obviously due to the continuous channel reform and the reduction of pressure in the off-season. Haier’s total sales volume was 1.28 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, of which 630000 units were sold domestically, the same as the same period last year, and 650000 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 71.05%.
Industry concentration increased. In January, the market share of total shipments of Midea, Gree and Haier was 36.80%, 22.91% and 9.61%, with year-on-year changes of – 0.9, – 0.6 and 2.4pct, of which the domestic market share was 39.39%, 33.12% and 11.28%, with year-on-year changes of 2.9, – 2.6 and 1.1pct, and the export market share was 34.93%, 15.53% and 8.41%, with year-on-year changes of – 3.7, 1.6 and 3.6pct. From the perspective of concentration, the domestic sales CR3 of air conditioner has increased by 1.4 PCT.
Investment suggestion: affected by the Spring Festival, the production and sales of air conditioners both fell in January. Among them, the domestic sales fell significantly due to the weak performance of the retail end and the high inventory, and the export fell slightly on the basis of last year’s high base. In the short term, the price of raw materials is still at a high level, there is little room for the decline of terminal prices, the retail performance of durable consumer goods in China is also relatively weak, and it is difficult to restore the domestic sales of air conditioners. Although export is facing base pressure, export data is expected to remain at a high level. Overall, we believe that the pattern of the air conditioning industry is relatively stable, the pattern dividend will be reflected when the marginal pressure of raw materials improves, and the profitability of white power leaders is expected to gradually improve. Due to many adjustments in 2021, the valuation of white power faucet is at a relatively low position in history and the safety margin is high. It is recommended to Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (000333), Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) (000651) and Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) (600690).
Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuation; Risk of export order transfer; The risk that the recovery of industry prosperity is less than expected.
